Ronald Guzman

Guzman was more interesting for his opportunity than his production last offseason, as he entered the year with a hold on the Rangers' starting job at first base despite hitting a modest .235/.306/.416 in his rookie campaign. He failed to build on those numbers in his second season, hitting just .219/.308/.414 over 87 games while missing time with a hamstring injury and a demotion to Triple-A. Guzman's .229/.307/.415 line over his first two seasons combined would be fine for a utility infielder but doesn't come close to meeting expectations at first base. He's still fairly young at 25 years old, but his modest .803 career OPS at the Triple-A level doesn't suggest that he's on the verge of a major breakout. The Rangers will likely look for other options to man the position in 2020, and even if they don't, Guzman won't be an appealing option outside of deep leagues.

Guzman benefited from Texas' poor season, debuting in mid-April and going on to make 428 plate appearances. He didn't necessarily benefit the Rangers as he hit just .235/.306/.416 with 16 homers. Those numbers are especially unexciting for a first baseman in a hitter's park. Guzman wasn't a particularly highly-rated prospect, so his performance wasn't too much of a surprise. Still just 24, Guzman has time to improve, and it may only take a small improvement for him to be a useful fantasy asset given his friendly park. An improvement would likely take the form of a drop in his strikeout rate, which sat at 28.3% after sitting at 16.1% with Triple-A Round Rock in 2017. Of course, there's the risk that another month or so of forgettable performances leads to the Rangers giving other young players a chance, so Guzman's floor remains low to go along with a fairly low ceiling.

First base prospects have a unique set of rules. The overall value that needs to be provided with the glove, but primarily with the bat, is so immense that a player who is 12 percent better than league average as a 22-year-old at Triple-A hardly moves the needle. Guzman showed he has the potential to hit for a fairly high average while making contact at an excellent clip (16.1 percent strikeout rate). However, a .136 ISO from a first baseman who is not a gold-glove caliber defender is not going to cut it. He turned 23 this offseason and packs plus raw power in his 6-foot-5, 205-pound frame, so we can't completely close the book on him doing enough damage with the bat to profile as a regular. But he needs to start getting to more of that power in games, and he needs to do so in a hurry. He is on the 40-man roster and the Rangers don't have a long-term answer at first base, so we could see him up in the first half.

The 6-foot-5, 205-pound Guzman has finally been able to tap into his power potential over the last year or so. The left-handed slugger belted a career-high 15 home runs in 102 games at Double-A in 2016. Perhaps most importantly, he saw a rise in the number of free passes drawn while his strikeout ratio fell. The improvement in plate discipline also resulted in a .288 batting average, along with a .348 on-base percentage -- the highest OBP for Guzman at any level of full-season ball during his minor league career. The 22-year-old did struggle a bit at Triple-A to end the season, though, so that is where he will begin the 2017 campaign. The Rangers don't exactly have a rousing set of options at first base, so despite Guzman's rather mediocre power numbers, he could get a crack at first base in the big leagues by the end of the 2017 season, especially after getting added to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Guzman was part of the same legendary 2011 July 2 signing class as Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor, but he has not developed on the same trajectory as his organization mates. The thought was that the lanky 6-foot-5 Guzman could be a middle-of-the order threat in time, but he is looking a bit more like a James Loney type, without the defense. He posted a .283/.324/.434 slash line with 12 homers in 131 games across Low-A and High-A as a 20-year-old in 2015, but there is not as much power projection left as one might think, given his age, position, and size. That said, he has a tendency to put the barrel on the baseball, so he could hit 35-plus doubles with regularity if he can find his way into an everyday role. There will be a pretty big adjustment period for him against Double-A pitching in 2016, so he will likely spend the entire year at Frisco.

A knee injury limited Guzman to just 49 games at Low-A Hickory, where he slashed .272/.325/.387, but there are some concerns about his eventual power profile, despite his large frame (6-5, 205). He's a very natural hitter but one with limited upside, which figures to disappoint some. He deserves at least a healthy and full season first, so 2014 figures to be a big year for him from a development standpoint.