Out
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 8/14/2025
2025 Stats
W-L
5-3
ERA
2.82
WHIP
1.07
K
61
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Lopez's second year in Minnesota went much like his first, though he was a bit less effective overall with a 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 198:41 K:BB across 185.1 innings. He set a career high with 15 wins, but a 1.3 HR/9 was also the worst of his career. The right-hander isn't as dominant as a true ace with a 3.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across the past three seasons, though he's made 32 starts in each of those campaigns and has a 9.8 K/9. Lopez is a reliable fantasy asset but isn't likely to anchor most league-winning staffs unless he's able to produce closer to the 3.07 ERA he posted for Miami in 2021, which is the lone season in which he's produced an ERA below 3.60 through seven big-league campaigns. He'll turn 29 years old in March and just posted a career high average fastball velocity of 95 mph, so there shouldn't be major concerns for regression. Read Past Outlooks

Diagnosed with Grade 2 strain
Lopez was diagnosed with a Grade 2 teres major strain in his right shoulder Wednesday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Lopez reported tightness in his right shoulder and requested to come out of the game after throwing a few warmup pitches prior to the sixth inning of Tuesday's contest. What originally began as tightness has now evolved into a relatively severe strain and will force the right-hander to miss roughly 8-12 weeks. That timeline will ensure he remains out until after the All-Star break, though he should still have a chance to return in time for the final month of the regular season. The Twins haven't yet announced a replacement for Lopez in their starting rotation, though David Festa figures to be a leading candidate to come up from Triple-A St. Paul.
Lopez reported tightness in his right shoulder and requested to come out of the game after throwing a few warmup pitches prior to the sixth inning of Tuesday's contest. What originally began as tightness has now evolved into a relatively severe strain and will force the right-hander to miss roughly 8-12 weeks. That timeline will ensure he remains out until after the All-Star break, though he should still have a chance to return in time for the final month of the regular season. The Twins haven't yet announced a replacement for Lopez in their starting rotation, though David Festa figures to be a leading candidate to come up from Triple-A St. Paul.
Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
92
Last 5 Games
91
How many pitches does Pablo Lopez generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Pablo Lopez generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-21%
BAA vs RHP
2025
-45%
BAA vs RHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2023vs Left | .271 | 220 | 54 | 230 | 29 | |||
Since 2023vs Right | .213 | 273 | 49 | 177 | 26 | |||
2025vs Left | .282 | 29 | 7 | 35 | 3 | |||
2025vs Right | .155 | 32 | 7 | 16 | 2 | |||
2024vs Left | .267 | 87 | 20 | 94 | 13 | |||
2024vs Right | .237 | 111 | 21 | 86 | 13 | |||
2023vs Left | .271 | 104 | 27 | 101 | 13 | |||
2023vs Right | .205 | 130 | 21 | 75 | 11 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-7%
ERA on Road
2025
-23%
ERA on Road
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2023Home | 3.86 | 1.17 | 207.1 | 10.5 | 1.9 | ||||
Since 2023Away | 3.60 | 1.15 | 232.2 | 9.7 | 2.3 | ||||
2025Home | 3.32 | 1.11 | 21.2 | 11.6 | 2.1 | ||||
2025Away | 2.54 | 1.05 | 39.0 | 7.6 | 2.1 | ||||
2024Home | 3.61 | 1.19 | 87.1 | 9.4 | 1.4 | ||||
2024Away | 4.50 | 1.19 | 98.0 | 9.8 | 2.5 | ||||
2023Home | 4.21 | 1.17 | 98.1 | 11.3 | 2.3 | ||||
2023Away | 3.10 | 1.14 | 95.2 | 10.4 | 2.2 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Pablo Lopez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
4.36K/9
9.0BB/9
2.1HR/9
0.7Fastball
94.4 mphERA
2.82WHIP
1.07BABIP
.295GB/FB
1.18Left On Base
74.1%Exit Velocity
82.2 mphBarrels/BBE
3.3%Spin Rate
2116 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
21.8%Swinging Strike
11.9%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Lopez had an impressive first season in Minnesota by finishing seventh in the AL Cy Young voting and going 2-0 and giving up one run in 12.2 innings in the postseason. Lopez changed his arsenal in the offseason to feature a sweeper as his primary off-speed pitch which resulted in more strikeouts. Lopez had a career-high 29.2% K% and 14.8% swinging K%. He allowed just a .215 wOBA and generated a 36.3% K% on his sweeper. He also set a new high 194 innings while maintaining career-best velocity (94.8 average mph fastball). The Twins signed him to a four-year, $73.54 million contract extension after his trade from Miami as they believe they traded for a true ace and felt validated by his playoff performance.
More Fantasy News

Likely headed to injured list
Lopez suffered a lat strain on the back of his pitching shoulder during Tuesday's 10-3 win over the Athletics and is likely to be placed on the injured list, the Phil Miller of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. "It's not the greatest news to hear, to have to deal with, but if there's a silver lining it's that it wasn't that posterior cuff or that I didn't feel anything blowing up," Lopez said after the game.
ANALYSIS
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Pulled with injury
Lopez was removed from Tuesday's game against the Athletics due to right shoulder tightness, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Falls to Tampa
Lopez (4-3) took the loss Wednesday against the Rays, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Steady campaign continues Friday
Lopez didn't factor into the decision Friday against the Royals after allowing one run on seven hits and no walks in 5.2 innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates Brewers in victory
Lopez (4-2) earned the win over Milwaukee on Saturday, allowing two hits and issuing two walks while striking out six batters over six scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Minnesota listening to offers
The Twins have listened to trade inquiries on Lopez, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
It remains a long shot that the Twins will trade Lopez, who is under contract for a reasonable $65.2 million over the next three years. However, it's possible the sky-high cost of free-agent starting pitching could lead to a team offering the Twins a boatload in exchange for Lopez. The righty held a 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 198:41 K:BB over 185.1 innings in 2024.
It remains a long shot that the Twins will trade Lopez, who is under contract for a reasonable $65.2 million over the next three years. However, it's possible the sky-high cost of free-agent starting pitching could lead to a team offering the Twins a boatload in exchange for Lopez. The righty held a 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 198:41 K:BB over 185.1 innings in 2024.