Nick Pivetta

32-Year-Old PitcherSP

San Diego Padres

2024 Stats

W-L

6-12

ERA

4.14

WHIP

1.13

172

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

After bouncing between the bullpen and rotation in 2023, Pivetta was mostly a starter in 2024. He once again had stretches of dominance but had an up-and-down season. The right-hander finished with a 4.14 ERA (3.51 xERA) over 145.2 innings. Pivetta lived in the strike zone - not unusual - with success (28.9 strikeout percentage) and failure (1.7 HR/9). He tends to hit a lot of barrels which can lead to elevated hard-hit rates, but he's pitched in a difficult market, missed some bats and doesn't walk many. That sounds like a major league starter, and the Red Sox extended him a $21.05 million qualifying offer, triple what he made in 2024. While the payday was enticing, Pivetta rejected the offer and will seek a multi-year offer. A couple of sources estimated he could get a three-year deal in the $50-60 million range. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

#220

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'5"

Weight 214

DOB 2/14/1993

Born Victoria, Canada

College New Mexico JC

Drafted 4th Rd 2013 WSH

Signs with San Diego

PSan Diego Padres

February 12, 2025

Pivetta signed a four-year, $55 million contract with the Padres on Wednesday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Pivetta declined a $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Red Sox earlier in the offseason, opting to pursue a multi-year deal with a lower AAV instead. That is exactly what he'll get from the Padres, who gain a much-needed boost to their rotation depth. The 31-year-old righty turned in a 4.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 145.2 innings last season alongside a 172:36 K:BB. He's developed a reputation for living in the strike zone and thus racking up high strikeout totals, but he has yet to finish a season with a sub-4.00 ERA over his eight-year career.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Nick Pivetta generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Nick Pivetta generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-8%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-31%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-12%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-1%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.221	838	233	77	166	38	3	39
Since 2022vs Right	.241	1117	297	82	247	52	3	39
2024vs Left	.188	289	90	21	50	9	2	11
2024vs Right	.271	306	82	15	78	14	2	17
2023vs Left	.225	241	77	18	49	14	0	16
2023vs Right	.197	346	106	32	61	17	1	7
2022vs Left	.252	308	66	38	67	15	1	12
2022vs Right	.254	465	109	35	108	21	0	15
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-7%

ERA on Road

2024

-13%

ERA at Home

2023

-22%

ERA on Road

2022

-10%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.43	1.32	231.2	14	18	0	10.3	3.6	1.3
Since 2022Away	4.11	1.13	236.1	12	15	1	10.1	2.6	1.7
2024Home	3.86	1.16	72.1	3	6	0	11.4	2.9	1.0
2024Away	4.42	1.09	73.1	3	6	0	9.8	1.6	2.5
2023Home	4.54	1.24	69.1	6	6	0	11.3	4.0	1.4
2023Away	3.56	1.01	73.1	4	3	1	11.8	2.3	1.5
2022Home	4.80	1.50	90.0	5	6	0	8.7	3.8	1.5
2022Away	4.32	1.26	89.2	5	6	0	8.8	3.5	1.2
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Stat Review

How does Nick Pivetta compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.78

K/9

10.6

BB/9

2.2

HR/9

1.7

Fastball

94.0 mph

ERA

4.14

WHIP

1.13

BABIP

.295

GB/FB

0.80

Left On Base

75.3%

Exit Velocity

81.7 mph

Barrels/BBE

6.1%

Spin Rate

2428 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

22.4%

Swinging Strike

11.8%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

After eight starts, Pivetta was sporting a 6.30 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with 42 strikeouts and nine homers allowed in 40 innings. He was moved to a multi-inning relief role where he excelled, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 12 appearances spanning 20 frames. He fanned 25 with just one homer in that stretch. Pivetta spent the last three months of the season jumping between the rotation and serving as a bulk reliever, registering a 3.27 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his final 82.2 innings, punching out 116 while surrendering a reasonable 13 homers. Pivetta's velocity picked up after he was initially demoted to the bullpen, and he started throwing his slider with more cutting action, both tweaks fueling Pivetta's second half success. He's a bit of a wild card this season as Pivetta exhibited success in several roles, and seemed to be at his best when he wasn't expected to pitch more than five frames, though he ended the season with two scoreless seven-inning starts. Pivetta's second half success can't be ignored, but paying for a repeat is a precarious proposition.

Pivetta struggled early and late in 2022 with a 6.52 ERA between his first five and final eight outings of the season, but he pitched much better during the heart of the campaign with a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 118:38 K:BB across his other 20 starts. Now entering his age-30 season, Pivetta lost a tick off his fastball and saw his strikeout rate drop nearly four percentage points to 22.6 percent compared to 2021, and he had a career-worst 45.4 percent hard-hit rate. He has a 4.54 ERA across 63 starts for Boston across the past two seasons and has a secure rotation spot heading into 2023, but his inconsistency makes him a difficult option to trust for fantasy managers. Pivetta's best value is likely to come as a streaming option.

Pivetta was one of the league's biggest first half surprises as he was sitting with a 3.78 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in early June. His 11.4% BB% was high, but a dominant 27.3% K% minimized damage. This is when umpires were instructed to check for grip enhancers. From this point on, Pivetta recorded a 5.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, but his BB% significantly fell to 8.7% while his K% dipped only slightly 25.9%. Pivetta's curve and slider spin rates fell for the first five outings after the umpires did their search, but recovered for the remainder of the season. This points to variance, and not a tackier explanation. Considering Pivetta was all but written off, last season was encouraging, but walks and homers remain an issue. He's a rotation lock and the strikeouts and win potential are nice, but they come with ratio risk, and the AL East isn't an easy division to take advantage of favorable matchups.

Pivetta failed to win a starting job with the Phillies, so he began the 2020 season as a reliever. Through three appearances, Pivetta was sporting a 15.88 ERA and 1.94 WHIP with three homers and just four whiffs in 5.2 innings. The struggles prompted Pivetta to lose his roster spot before he was dealt to the Red Sox on Aug. 21. Pivetta was stretched out at Boston's alternate training facility as the Red Sox viewed him as a starter. Pivetta was recalled and made two starts, each lasting five frames with four hits and one earned run allowed. In those 10 innings, he fanned 13 with five walks. The results were enough for Pivetta to get a spring audition as a back-end starter in Boston's depleted rotation. Pivetta will be just 28 years old and the Red Sox are hoping he can rediscover the promising skills displayed in his first two seasons. Perhaps a change of scenery will help, but the wait-and-see approach is recommended.

2019 was supposed to be Pivetta's breakout campaign, as his underlying numbers suggested that a big improvement from his 4.77 ERA was coming. Unfortunately for those who bought into the hype, that didn't come close to happening. He was sent to the minors in mid-April after posting an 8.35 ERA in his first four starts and never really got things together even after returning in late May, posting a 4.66 ERA the rest of way. He lost his rotation spot for good in mid-July, spending the rest of the year in the bullpen. Pivetta's rough season was the product of his numbers falling off across the board. His BB% rose from 7.4% to 9.3%, while his formerly promising 27.1 K% plummeted to 21.1 K%. He also saw his HR/9 balloon to 1.92. The Phillies don't have much reason to bring the Canadian back into the rotation, and there's little reason to believe he'll suddenly become a relief ace.

Pivetta’s underlying numbers from his rookie campaign hinted at the possibility of improvement in 2018, and improvement did indeed come, with the righty cutting his ERA from an ugly 6.02 to a still-high 4.77. The story heading into 2019 is much the same, as Pivetta’s supporting statistics yet again suggest that he has the potential for more. He posted a strong 27.1% strikeout rate (13th-best among qualified starters) and a better-than-average 7.4% walk rate, leading to a solid 3.80 FIP. The problem for the Canadian remains the home-run ball. His career HR/FB remains a troubling 17%, well above the league average. If he can get that in line, he could develop into a workhorse that provides lots of strikeouts and a relatively low ERA. If the homer problem remains, he’ll do enough damage to fantasy owners’ ERAs to render him nothing more than a deep-league option despite the whiffs.

Pivetta was one of several young Phillies to be given a chance in the starting rotation, and like most of them, he struggled, putting up a 6.02 ERA in 133 innings. However, the underlying numbers suggest he deserved better. He struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings, well above the major-league average of 8.3 K/9, and his groundball percentage of 43.8 was right around the league average. His high ERA can be primarily attributed to a relatively high BABIP (.332) and a high HR/FB rate (18.2 percent), both of which can be expected to regress toward the mean next season. If the Phillies trust Pivetta's underlying numbers, he should be given a chance in the rotation again next year and could have more success. Still, he doesn't look like much more than a back-end starter long term.

More Fantasy News

Rejects qualifying offer

PFree Agent

November 19, 2024

Pivetta rejected the Red Sox' one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.