Mitch Keller
28-Year-Old
2024 Stats
W-L
11-12
ERA
4.25
WHIP
1.30
K
166
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Keller earned his first career All-Star nod in 2023 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts during the first half, but he fell apart after the break with a 5.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 13 outings. The good news is that the right-hander stayed mostly healthy and set a career high with 194.1 innings, and he also improved his strikeout rate to 25.5 percent and walk rate to 6.7 percent. Keller also may have received some unfortunate results, as indicated by a 3.83 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP compared to a 4.21 ERA. Despite the struggles down the stretch in 2023, it's a season to build on as he enters his age-28 campaign. Keller certainly shouldn't be the ace of a staff but is a strong option to round out a rotation for fantasy managers in 2024, especially if he can maintain the decent strikeout and win (13) totals. Read Past Outlooks
Drops third straight
Keller (11-12) took the loss Thursday against the Brewers, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
Keller got off to a solid start, holding Milwaukee to one run through his first four innings, before giving up two more in the fifth. The 28-year-old Keller would ultimately take his third straight loss and fifth in his last six outings. After an encouraging start to the year, Keller faded down the stretch, posting a 7.29 ERA in his final nine starts (45.2 innings). Keller will wrap up the season with a 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 166:50 K:BB across 178 innings.
Keller got off to a solid start, holding Milwaukee to one run through his first four innings, before giving up two more in the fifth. The 28-year-old Keller would ultimately take his third straight loss and fifth in his last six outings. After an encouraging start to the year, Keller faded down the stretch, posting a 7.29 ERA in his final nine starts (45.2 innings). Keller will wrap up the season with a 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 166:50 K:BB across 178 innings.
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
88
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-5%
BAA vs RHP
2024
-5%
BAA vs RHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022vs Left | .265 | 266 | 94 | 277 | 37 | |||
Since 2022vs Right | .251 | 248 | 71 | 254 | 25 | |||
2024vs Left | .268 | 96 | 23 | 99 | 16 | |||
2024vs Right | .254 | 70 | 27 | 83 | 7 | |||
2023vs Left | .253 | 115 | 37 | 98 | 16 | |||
2023vs Right | .244 | 95 | 18 | 89 | 9 | |||
2022vs Left | .276 | 55 | 34 | 80 | 5 | |||
2022vs Right | .257 | 83 | 26 | 82 | 9 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-36%
ERA at Home
2024
-44%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022Home | 3.23 | 1.21 | 267.2 | 8.2 | 2.7 | ||||
Since 2022Away | 5.05 | 1.41 | 263.2 | 9.3 | 2.9 | ||||
2024Home | 3.08 | 1.17 | 90.2 | 8.5 | 2.3 | ||||
2024Away | 5.46 | 1.44 | 87.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | ||||
2023Home | 2.90 | 1.06 | 90.0 | 8.4 | 2.3 | ||||
2023Away | 5.35 | 1.41 | 104.1 | 10.9 | 2.8 | ||||
2022Home | 3.72 | 1.40 | 87.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | ||||
2022Away | 4.13 | 1.39 | 72.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.32K/9
8.4BB/9
2.5HR/9
1.2Fastball
94.0 mphERA
4.25WHIP
1.30BABIP
.321GB/FB
1.29Left On Base
71.1%Exit Velocity
82.5 mphBarrels/BBE
4.1%Spin Rate
2506 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
23.8%Swinging Strike
9.7%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Through his first seven starts of 2022, Keller had a 6.61 ERA. After he was briefly demoted to a relief role, it appeared the Keller was on a continued trajectory of an underwhelming MLB career. However, the narrative quickly took a turn, as Keller re-entered the rotation and closed the campaign by maintaining a 3.22 ERA across his last 120.1 innings. He turned into a contact-heavy pitcher in that span by maintaining only a 20.7 K%, but that also allowed him to fill the strike zone and maintain an 8.8 BB% (career 9.7 BB%). Even more of a revelation was Keller's ability to keep batted balls on the ground, as his GB% spiked to 49.4% and HR/9 fell to 0.7. While those exact numbers may not be replicable, the positive results were made more believable by a tangible change in Keller's pitch mix. He threw his four-seam fastball less in exchange for introducing a sinker, so the tradeoff of swings and misses for groundballs is sensible. While his role once seemed to be in danger, Keller is locked in as a top-three pitcher in the Pirates' rotation, and he could be capable of turning in solid ratios without much strikeout or win upside.
More Fantasy News
Gives up eight in loss
Keller (11-11) took the loss Friday against Cincinnati, allowing eight runs on seven hits and five walks over 3.1 innings. He struck out one.
ANALYSIS
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Gets little help in loss
Keller (11-10) took the loss Saturday, giving up four runs (three earned) on four hits and a walk over six innings as the Pirates fell 5-1 to the Royals. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Let down by bullpen Saturday
Keller allowed two runs on seven hits and no walks while striking out eight batters over six innings in a no-decision against Washington in the nightcap of Saturday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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Allows three homers in loss
Keller (11-9) took the loss Sunday, allowing four runs (three earned) on 11 hits in 5.1 innings against the Guardians. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Bounces back with brilliant outing
Keller (11-7) picked up the win Tuesday in a 4-0 victory over the Rangers, scattering three hits over seven-plus scoreless innings. He struck out nine without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
No extension talks
The Pirates have not approached Keller about an extension this offseason, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
General manager Ben Cherington stated that it was the club's priority to get a deal done with Keller this offseason, though apparently there's been little progress made. The righty addressed the issue Friday, saying that he believed negotiations could begin closer to spring training. Though he still struggled with consistency, Keller had a strong 2023 season during which he broke out to post a 25.5 percent strikeout rate while also dropping his walk rate to 6.7 percent across 194.1 innings.
General manager Ben Cherington stated that it was the club's priority to get a deal done with Keller this offseason, though apparently there's been little progress made. The righty addressed the issue Friday, saying that he believed negotiations could begin closer to spring training. Though he still struggled with consistency, Keller had a strong 2023 season during which he broke out to post a 25.5 percent strikeout rate while also dropping his walk rate to 6.7 percent across 194.1 innings.