Matthew Liberatore

Liberatore has one of the prettiest curveballs you will see in baseball. The league hit .222 off his curveball with a 35% Whiff Rate as it is his primary weapon of choice to put away hitters. The problem with Liberatore is his fastball was incredibly hittable last season as the league hit .364 against the pitch while slugging .673 off it. This is why he has struggled both at the major and upper minors since the year off in 2020 with walks, homers, and too many baserunners. The Cardinals did not even put him on the postseason roster, and he does not appear to have a shot at a spot in the rotation to start the season unless Jack Flaherty or Steven Matz break down again. It is tough to give up on someone whose velocity and movement are similar to Reid Detmers and Max Fried (according to StatCast), but he is current a distant third in that trio until something improves with his fastball.

While Liberatore's fastball is just OK, his slider has emerged as a dominant offering. The pitch got whiffs 41% of the time and was thrown for strikes 71% of the time, and that success helped the 6-foot-5 southpaw put up a strong final full season in the minors. His 124.2 innings were the 11th most in the minors and fifth most by a fantasy-relevant pitcher. He had a 4.04 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year, but he finished strong, logging a 2.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 57:17 K:BB in 57.1 innings over his final 10 starts. In addition to his low-90s fastball and plus slider, he also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which have above-average potential. While he is not on the 40-man roster, Liberatore represents the Cardinals' clear best starter in the minors, so it seems inevitable that he will spend a portion of this season in the big-league rotation, provided he stays healthy. The Cardinals offer excellent team context (defense, ballpark, division), and while Liberatore isn't so elite that he would be a set-it-and-forget-it option, he should at least be streamable in favorable matchups.

Through no fault of his own, Liberatore will inevitably be judged against Randy Arozarena, as the two were the headlining pieces in last offseason's trade between the Rays and Cardinals. While Arozarena's stock has taken off like a rocket ship since the trade, Liberatore's stock has taken a slight hit with the emergence of TrackMan data on public sites, such as Prospects Live. The 6-foot-5 lefty gets poor extension on his low-spin low-90s fastball, meaning it will play below its velocity. His curveball and changeup are quality offspeed offerings and he could develop plus command, so Liberatore's future is in the rotation, but this seems like a nice offseason to cash him out in dynasty leagues. He may open at High-A, but he should spend the bulk of 2021 at Double-A, setting up a potential 2022 MLB debut.

A high-pedigree lefty with an excellent 6-foot-5, 200-pound frame, Liberatore largely lived up to expectations in his first full season. The target was 115 innings, and he was on that pace until an ineffective July (17 ER, 12 BB in 21.1 IP), which was followed by missed time in August with a back spasms. Prior to July, he had a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 49 strikeouts in 48 innings (eight starts). He also finished strong after returning from the injured list (1.80 ERA, 10:2 K:BB in 10 IP). Liberatore commands a plus low-90s fastball that touches 97 mph, and his curveball is one of the best in the minors. He also has a quality changeup and useable slider. His deep arsenal, above-average command and ability to induce weak contact (57.3 GB%) point to at least a mid-rotation role, with a chance for a little more if his changeup or slider improves. He was shipped to St. Louis in a multi-player trade this offseason.

Any investment in a prep pitcher who has not made his full-season debut is fraught with risk, but Liberatore has the qualities dynasty-league managers should be looking for when contemplating taking that plunge. A 6-foot-5, 200-pound southpaw, Liberatore was in the mix to be a top-five pick in 2018, but his velocity ticked down and he scuffled with his command late in his senior year. That small sample led to the Rays getting a bargain with the No. 16 overall pick. Liberatore was sitting 92-93 mph with his fastball and touched 95 mph after signing. He also boasts a plus curveball and a changeup that projects as another plus secondary offering. There is no guarantee that he will add velocity in the coming years, but given his age and projectable frame, it would not be surprising if he were sitting 94-95 mph with his heater by the time he reaches the majors. That would all add up to a frontline starter, given his athleticism and expected command gains.