Matthew Boyd

34-Year-Old PitcherSP

Chicago Cubs

2025 Stats

W-L

0-0

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.00

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

The Cubs are betting big on what Boyd showed with Cleveland last season after he returned from Tommy John surgery. A $29 million investment is a lot for pitcher that has barely logged 200 total innings in the majors over the last four years, but Boyd was as good as ever after signing with Cleveland in June, posting a 2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 46:13 K:BB across 39.2 innings spanning eight regular-season starts. He added 11.2 frames with a 0.77 ERA in the postseason. Boyd has been on the radar for years and is now entering his age-34 campaign. The lefty had flexor tendon surgery in 2021 before ultimately needing TJS, so to say he's a health risk would be an understatement. Fantasy managers should be prepared to move on at a moment's notice. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#316

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 220

DOB 2/2/1991

Born Mercer Island, WA

College Oregon State

Drafted 6th Rd 2013 TOR

Wraps up spring slate

PChicago Cubs

March 24, 2025

Boyd allowed three runs on six hits across 5.2 innings in Sunday's Cactus League game against the Athletics. He walked one and struck out three.

ANALYSIS
It was an uneven start for Boyd, who served up a pair of Oakland home runs. However, the veteran southpaw also had his longest outing of the spring, which is a positive step for a player who has dealt with numerous injuries the past few years. Boyd is in line to serve as the Cubs' No. 4 starter this season and projects to make his debut next Sunday against the Diamondbacks on the road. If healthy, he could be a sneaky fantasy option, though Chicago will likely monitor the 34-year-old's workload closely.

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-35%

BAA vs LHP

2025

No Stats

2024

-38%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-35%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2023vs Left	.165	94	23	9	14	2	0	3
Since 2023vs Right	.255	375	96	29	87	21	0	12
2025vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2025vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024vs Left	.143	31	9	3	4	0	0	2
2024vs Right	.230	135	37	10	28	8	0	2
2023vs Left	.175	63	14	6	10	2	0	1
2023vs Right	.269	240	59	19	59	13	0	10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-37%

ERA on Road

2025

No Stats

2024

-30%

ERA at Home

2023

-52%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2023Home	5.53	1.42	53.2	2	6	0	8.4	3.5	0.8
Since 2023Away	3.47	1.11	57.0	5	1	0	10.9	2.7	1.6
2025Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2025Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024Home	2.25	0.95	20.0	1	1	0	10.4	1.8	0.0
2024Away	3.20	1.32	19.2	1	1	0	10.5	4.1	1.8
2023Home	7.49	1.69	33.2	1	5	0	7.2	4.5	1.3
2023Away	3.62	0.99	37.1	4	0	0	11.1	1.9	1.4
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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2021

2020

2019

2018

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2016

Boyd boomeranged his way back to Detroit this offseason on a one-year deal after spending a season back in the northwest working his way back into pitching shape with Seattle. Boyd did not even take the mound until September, nearly a full year after having flexor tendon surgery after going down in an early September 2021 start at Cincinnati. He worked just a handful of innings in relief, but Boyd the reliever was particularly impressive as he the league had just 2 singles off his secondary pitches with both his slider and changeup being particularly whiffy. Detroit gave him $10M to come back and work as a starting pitcher, so Boyd will need to show that he can shoulder a workload he has not seen since the 2019 season. That 2019 season was a version of Boyd we will likely never see again, but hopefully the new version of him is closer to the 2021 version of him which finally got home runs somewhat under control and brought his career HR/9 down to 1.6. The risk/reward factor is somewhat limited by the fact Detroit is still rebuilding and Boyd has never had a double-digit winning season while pitching for them.

Boyd entered the 2020 season with the burden of proving that the results of his 2019 campaign were a new norm rather than a one-year aberration on his resume. While a full season of work yielded only 60.1 innings, Boyd's results regressed heavily in 2020. His fastball remained troublesome, as opposing batters teed off against the pitch for a .643 slugging percentage, .425 wOBA and eight home runs. Also problematic was the fact that Boyd generated fewer whiffs and surrendered harder contact with his slider, which ranked among the best pitches in the league in past seasons. The result was a strikeout rate and K-BB% that fell back toward his career average and a 2.24 HR/9 that sunk many of his starts. Projecting forward, Boyd is a safe bet for volume, though his ratios aren't likely to reach their 2019 peak and his win potential may also be muted if he remains a Tiger amid offseason trade rumors.

The perennial fantasy tease was at it again. Two months into the season, Boyd was sporting a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 88 strikeouts, 15 walks and a stingy seven homers in 72.2 frames. There wasn't anything different with his pitch mix, but the strong start was supported by underlying metrics, sending many down the familiar rabbit hole. Once the calendar flipped to June, Boyd gave up homers like Pete Alonso's cousin in the Home Run Derby, surrendering 12 in his next 34.1 innings. The onslaught continued with Boyd ultimately serving up 39 long balls in 185.1 innings, second most in the league. While the lively ball played a part, the main reason for the homer barrage was Boyd's inability to continue getting away with working up in the zone. In order to be trusted as more than a streamer, Boyd needs to demonstrate a tangible reason he can the ball in the yard all season. If you take the flier, be ready to bail.

Boyd was the de facto staff ace for Detroit in 2018, leading the team in starts, quality starts, wins and strikeouts. The lefty came out of the gates hot, posting an even 3.00 ERA over his first 10 starts, but these monthly ERAs followed: 6.32, 4.34, 4.25, 5.40. He can show flashes of upside, like he did Sept. 8 when he fanned 11 Cardinals, but only his slider graded out as league average. Granted, it was the fifth-best slider among starters, but it's tough to be successful in the major leagues on a consistent basis with only one good pitch. Against lefty batters, Boyd had a 22.6 K-BB%, but that number fell all the way to 13.2% against opposite-handed hitters. Righties combined for 21 homers against Boyd (1.44 HR/9). He seems cemented into the Tigers' rotation and his WHIP will likely remain reasonable, but those home runs aren't going anywhere and the team will be bad, so don't get too carried away.

The lefty has enjoyed a great deal of success at Triple-A (2.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.5 K/9), but to this point he's been unable to sustain success at the highest level. His strikeout rate fell by two per nine with the jump between levels last season (to 7.3 K/9) while his walk rate ticked up by more than a walk per nine (3.5 BB/9), but even so he probably deserved a little better than a 5.27 ERA -- Boyd was bit unlucky with a .330 BABIP and 68.7 percent strand rate. Just keep in mind that Boyd's BABIP will remain relatively high if he continues to allow line drives at a 22.3 percent clip. Boyd finished strong last season (2.95 ERA in September) and should have a rotation spot locked down on the rebuilding Tigers, so he has some appeal in the endgame of AL-only drafts and auctions, but he's waiver-wire fodder in mixed leagues until further notice.

Boyd had one of those seasons we regularly see from young arms: he was either good or horrible. There was little in-between. He had four incredibly bad starts that accounted for 49 percent of his earned runs (24-of-49) in just 11 percent of his innings (11.2 out of 97.1) yielding a 18.46 ERA. He posted a 2.63 ERA in his other 85.7 innings (14 starts, two relief appearances). Boyd has a quality four-pitch mix with the slider and changeup both operating as swing-and-miss offerings against righties and lefties, but the fastball and curve were homer-prone versus righties which resulted in a 202-point OPS split. His key to success is keeping the fastball up versus righties and maybe shifting some of the curveball usage to his other secondaries unless he can stop hanging it so much. There's something to bet on here and he won't cost much at all.

Boyd went to Detroit in the David Price trade and had a cup of coffee as the Tigers' fifth starter last year. He struggled with control and the long ball. In fact, he allowed 17 homers in just 57.1 innings of work and finished 1-6 with a 1.59 WHIP and 43:20 K:BB rate. He's a power lefty who hit 95 mph as a starter, but his future might lie in the bullpen, as his heater could theoretically hit 97 or even 98 if he were restricted to just one or two innings of work, and that could make him remarkably successful given the deceit that comes with his arm slot. He isn't yet worth owning as a starter in most formats, although he will have an opportunity to compete for a spot in the rotation during spring training. His horrible numbers in limited work in the big leagues last year will scare everyone away, so if he does win a spot out of camp, he will be dirt cheap in AL-only leagues.

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Allows four runs Saturday

PChicago Cubs

March 9, 2025

Boyd allowed four runs on four hits and two walks across 3.2 innings in Saturday's Cactus League game against the Mariners. He struck out three.