Kevin Kiermaier

The longest-tenured and most expensive member of the Tampa Bay roster did his usual stuff again in 2021, in ever aspect of the game. He continues to play center field at an elite level while taking advantage of his speed to take the extra base or to leg out some infield grounders. The other thing he continues to excel at is missing time with injury, as he failed to reach the 500 plate appearance level for a fifth consecutive full season of play. He missed time in 2021 with quad, wrist and knee troubles and needed arthroscopic knee surgery in October to fully put the knee issue to rest. He turns 32 in late April, but runs the risk of aging quickly given he's spent his entire career playing home games at a taxing position on a taxing surface. His plate skills continue to be limited in his troubles with velocity up, sweepers away and a growing case of reverse splits.

It was a typical season for Kiermaier -- not very productive, but with just enough steals to be viable in certain scenarios. The slick-fielding outfielder was his usual stellar self in center but did not take home the Gold Glove. Kiermaier showed more plate patience, blowing away his career high in BB%. However, he gave back the previous season's K% gains and then some, fanning at a career-worst pace. For the second straight season, Kiermaier appeared unlucky based on Statcast xBA, but playing half the time in Tropicana Field pushes his actual average below what's expected. He managed to avoid the IL, but Kiermaier did play through foot, knee and back injuries. Even with his plus defense, it's difficult to envision Kiermaier as anything more than a strong-side platoon player, chipping in some bags but with little power and a low batting average.

Kiermaier was able to put together a healthy (for him) season, logging 480 PA, the second-highest total of his career. By stealing 19 bases in 24 attempts, Kiermaier finished 71st among outfielders in earned value, but make no mistake about it; it was not a good offensive season. He walked just 5.4% of the time and got on base at a .278 clip, the lowest mark among all players with 450 PA. While he did improve greatly against same-handed pitching (.784 OPS, up from .548), that improvement was offset by sizable dip in performance against righties. In total, Kiermaier was 22% worse than the average MLB hitter. His defense is holding up and Kiermaier still has several years remaining on his contract, but given his lengthy injury history, we should assume there's only one way to go with his plate appearances. Keep in mind that his running tailed off as the season wore on (four attempts in the second half).

Kiermaier played his typically-stellar defense in 2018, but that doesn't count in most fantasy leagues, and he really struggled in that realm, posting a career-low .653 OPS and appearing in just 88 games. He missed time with multiple foot and back injuries, as well as thumb and shoulder issues, with his season eventually coming to a close in late September due to a hairline fracture in his right foot. Kiermaier's defense will earn him plenty of at-bats again in 2019, and he may even open the year as the leadoff hitter against righties. However, he has not played more than 105 games in a season since 2015 and the Rays are flush with young players capable of playing the outfield who could cut into his playing time if his offensive production is well below average for the second year in a row. The top thing working in his favor in that regard is that he is under contract through the 2022 season.

A plus baserunner with a career .750 OPS and two Gold Gloves on his mantle, Kiermaier excels in nearly all phases of the game, but injuries have prevented the outfielder from cementing his status as a star-level talent. After a broken wrist limited him to 105 games in 2016, Kiermaier missed two-plus months in 2017 with a fractured hip. Though the extended absence extinguished any hope of a major breakout, Kiermaier was among the top fantasy assets following his mid-August return, slashing .306/.352/.517 with eight home runs and six steals over his final 36 games. While Kiermaier probably can’t maintain that post-injury pace for the entirety of the 2018 campaign, his five-category upside is evident if he can skirt the health setbacks that hindered him the past two seasons. Due to his career-long scuffles against southpaws, Kiermaier’s batting average seems less bankable than his outputs in other areas, though his speed in addition to the lofty 34.8% hard-hit rate he sported in the second half supports his ability to sustain a high BABIP.

Kiermaier's 2016 campaign was interrupted by a wrist injury but he finished on a strong note, tallying a .296 average, .379 wOBA, five homers and eight stolen bases over his final 112 plate appearances. Despite missing 57 games, Kiermaier still managed to post a career-high 12 homers in 414 plate appearances, while his hard contact rate climbed to a career-high 31.4 percent. He ripped off 34 extra-base hits as well, although after tallying an absurd 12 triples in 2015, he managed only a pair of three-baggers last season. A full season could knock Kiermaier's fantasy value back up several notches, making him a viable mixed-league outfield option. He is only truly great on the defensive side of the ball, but he is a good enough athlete and has just enough pop to profile as a good bet for double-digit homers and double-digit steals once again in his age-27 season.

Last season was a true breakout year for Kiermaier, cementing him as the team’s everyday center fielder on the strength of a glove that won him the Platinum Glove for best fielder in the majors. The bad news? That fielding means little in fantasy. As a hitter, Kiermaier leaves much to be desired. His .263/.298/.420 slash line with 10 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 23 attempts puts him around league average. Granted, he could start hitting the Mendoza Line and still be worth playing for Tampa Bay because of that glove, but that’s an advantage fantasy owners don’t get to enjoy. He stopped getting starts in the leadoff spot midway through the season, cutting into his opportunities for runs and steals, and that’s not likely to change in 2016. Kiermaier may currently represent the biggest split between real-life value and fantasy value in the league, so don’t draft him purely on name recognition.

Players drafted in the 31st round are not supposed to make the major leagues, but Kiermaier did. Primarily known for his speed and defense, Kiermaier hit in Double-A and was doing so again in Triple-A before he was promoted when Wil Myers had to go to the disabled list. He hit the ground running and was batting .310//.349/.576 heading into the All-Star break with 22 extra-base hits and several amazing defensive plays. The second half was a different story offensively as he hit .220/.284/.335 the rest of the way with just 12 extra-base hits as the league stopped pitching him inside. Despite his quickness, he is not a good basestealer and rarely tried to steal bags when he was on base at the big league level. Despite the numbers last season, Kiermaier profiles as a fourth outfielder who will have to slash and dash for production.

Kiermaier took an interesting path to Tampa Bay in the 2013 season. He began the season with Double-A Montgomery and excelled with the bat, hitting .307/.370/.434 with five home runs and 14 stolen bases before being promoted to Triple-A Durham. His prominent skill as a center fielder is that he is widely regarded as the best defensive player in the entire organization. The team felt confident enough in his defensive ability to bring him up and use him as a defensive replacement in the team's elimination game against the Rangers. Kiermaier will likely begin the 2014 season with Triple-A to develop his offense, but his skill in the field could be his ticket to the majors.