Jake Bauers

Bauers came to the big leagues in 2018 with a good track record of hitting and a reputation for a willingness to accept his walks from opposing pitchers. Through two seasons at the big-league level, the walk rate has stuck, but little else has. He has been overmatched by most pitchers and has not hit for much power. Those two things coupled with below-average defensive abilities kept him off the major-league roster in 2020 as Bauers could not get out of the alternative camp. Bauers has shown no ability to hit lefty pitching, and has not done much with the time he has been afforded against righties either. He is out of minor-league options, so 2021 becomes a make-or-break time for him in Cleveland.

The Indians acquired Bauers from the Rays last offseason, intrigued by his plate discipline and athleticism. They knew Bauers exhibited contact issues and unfortunately, they persisted throughout the 2019 season. Bauers failed to build on his rookie campaign, eventually being sent to Triple-A Columbus for most of August. His patience waned as his walk rate dropped from 13.9% in 2018 to 10.6%. It wasn't all bad as the lefty improved quality of contact versus southpaws, slugging better against same-side pitching. Bauers' minor-league strikeout rate was 17.1%, so there's room to improve on his career 24.6% MLB mark. Despite struggling previously in the outfield, Bauers' best path to regular action is left field with Carlos Santana and Franmil Reyes earmarked for first base and designated hitter. There's playing time available, but to this point Bauers has done little to instill confidence he'll take advantage.

Bauers is not your prototypical first baseman. He does not hit with the power that we associate with the position, but he has better-than-average pop. He has enough athleticism to play both first base and the outfield, and has stolen 36 bases over the past two seasons. He has had double-digit home runs and steals in each of the past two seasons, most of which has been spent at Triple-A Durham. His rookie season was a disappointment, hurt mostly by a terrible stretch over the summer where he became a three-true-outcome player. Over 85 plate appearances in August and September, Bauers hit .058/.202/.072. He struggles against lefties, and will likely be platooned even following an offseason trade to the Indians. One has to hope the summer struggles were an adjustment period and not a sign of things to come.

If the ball stays juiced, Bauers could end up being one of the most underrated prospects in the minors. He has an elite approach and quality hit tool, which could lead to on-base percentages north of .360. Bauers is an average runner with great instincts on the bases -- a rare skill for a Triple-A first baseman. He also has above-average raw power, but doesn't access all of it in games yet. This is where he becomes impossible to project. If Jesse Winker can get to the big leagues and hit seven home runs in 47 games, then Bauers is capable of being a 20-plus homer bat from Day 1, but it's unclear if this power environment will continue in perpetuity. The outfield experiment was a flop, and he should take the reins as the everyday big-league first baseman early in his age-22 season. His plate skills and modest speed contributions provide a solid floor, but his power output will determine whether he is a sought after fantasy first baseman or a corner-infield replacement option in standard leagues.

Bauers' 2016 numbers with Double-A Montgomery may not jump out at a glance, but considering his age relative to level, it was a highly successful campaign. The 21-year-old outfielder/first baseman's OBP represented a 41-point improvement over the number he generated in his 285-plate appearance sample at the Double-A level in 2015 -- a product of Bauers walking a career-high 73 times over 581 plate appearances (pushing his walk rate from 7.4 percent to 12.6 percent). He also showed an ability to make consistent contact, striking out at just a 15.3 percent clip. Bauers figures to start 2017 back at Montgomery, and whether he will stick at his corner infield spot or settle permanently in the outfield remains in question. He may have better overall long-term viability in the latter role, as the lefty hitter doesn't project to hit for elite power at the highest level, although there is still room for projection in that department.

Simply put, first base prospects have to hit a lot to make it in the big leagues. Nobody questions Bauers' hit tool, but forget plus power, he may not even have above-average power. Every now and then a player like James Loney or Casey Kotchman is able to carve out a career as a starting first baseman despite never hitting 20 home runs in a season, but it is a pretty rare feat. Additionally, those players are usually afterthoughts in fantasy. The fact that Bauers hit .276 in 285 plate appearances at Double-A as a 19-year-old is incredibly impressive, but that does not change his long-term outlook. He played the outfield in the Arizona Fall League, where his offensive profile would be a better fit, but it remains to be seen if he has the ability to handle an outfield corner in the upper levels. If he remains a first baseman, he will be a low-upside option, due to the lack of projectable power, but he becomes more interesting in dynasty leagues if there is a permanent transition to the outfield.