Ian Anderson

Few players saw their stock drop as much over the past year as Anderson. He finished third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021 and helped Atlanta to a title by allowing just three runs in four playoff starts, but his ERA backed all the way up to 5.00 in his second full season. He reached that number in 22 starts, as he was banished to the minors in mid-August and missed the tail end of the season with a strained oblique. Anderson's 4.25 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest that his ERA overstated his struggles to a certain extent, though neither number is encouraging. The 24-year-old carried a career 24.5 K% into the season but saw that mark drop to 19.7% last year, while his already high walk rate jumped to 11.0%. A merely above-average 47.9% groundball rate couldn't overcome those issues. Anderson's prospect pedigree and the fact that he pitched quite well in 2021 make him an interesting bounceback candidate, but there's no guarantee he even has a major-league role to begin the year.

Anderson finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, garnering three third place votes. He was a playoff hero, winning two of four starts while posting a 0.96 ERA in 18.2 innings. Anderson's season-long 3.58 ERA was deemed half a run too low by its estimators, with a lucky .261 BABIP lending a helping hand. Walks have always been an issue, though Anderson's 9.9 BB% is an improvement over recent seasons. He features a four-seam fastball, curve and changeup with the latter two responsible for most of his punchouts. Anderson throws his heater almost half the time, so if he tweaks his pitch mix, he could add a tick or two to his 23.2 K%. Anderson was sidelined for about six weeks after the break with shoulder soreness, but he showed no ill effects after returning. There is a lot to like, and Anderson would not be the first 24-year-old pitcher to improve control, but paying for it is a slippery slope.

Anderson shattered expectations in 10 starts across the regular season and the playoffs. The No. 3 overall pick in 2016 was higher on prospect rankings after 2018 than he was after his 2019 season, which closed with him walking 18 in 24.2 innings at Triple-A. The secret to his MLB success was a devastating 87 mph changeup he threw 31 percent of the time. His fastball and curveball are unremarkable, but the quality of his changeup allowed his other pitches to play up. Anderson's Barrel% was in the 99th percentile and his improved changeup led to a much higher GB% (52.5) than he'd shown in the minors. He has always walked too many batters, but it looks like his 15.9 BB% at Triple-A was the outlier. If the homer suppression and groundball rate he displayed are mostly sustainable, a high walk rate won't matter as much. He has been very durable and could approach 160 innings in his first full MLB season.

On the bright side, Anderson tied for the fourth-most strikeouts (172) in the minors during his age-20/21 season at Double-A and Triple-A. Unfortunately, his secondary stuff and command did not improve as one would have hoped. He has now logged walk rates north of 10% in four of five stops above rookie ball, with his 15.9 BB% at Triple-A ranking as easily his worst rate as a professional. His mid-90s fastball is his best pitch, while his curveball can be an above-average offering. However, his changeup still lags behind. When he throws strikes, good hitters can hunt fastballs and when he doesn't throw strikes, good hitters just take their walks. Youth, size (6-foot-3, 180 pounds) and velocity are the best things about his profile, but at some point he needs to start improving his weaknesses. The Braves won't call him up until he can at least demonstrate fringe-average command at Triple-A.

Of the five Braves pitching prospects who are top 100 prospects for dynasty leagues, Anderson is the only one who has not yet pitched in the majors. He continues to get better every year, and held High-A and Double-A hitters to a .199 AVG while allowing just two home runs en route to a 2.49 ERA. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound righty has prototypical size and an athletic delivery. He used his mid-90s fastball and plus curveball to lead the Florida State League with a 28.5 K%. That mark climbed to 30% across four starts in the Southern League, as his changeup steadily improved as the year went on. His command and control waxes and wanes, but when he is pounding the zone he is one of the best pitchers in the minors. Anderson logged a 1.17 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 66 strikeouts in 53.2 innings across the nine starts where he walked one or fewer. With more consistent fastball command and continued improvement to his changeup, he could be a frontline starter.

The Braves have at least nine pitching prospects who warrant ownership in deeper leagues, and Anderson is squarely in the middle of that pack. He has a very athletic 6-foot-3, 170-pound frame and boasts a mid-90s fastball, plus curveball and potentially above-average changeup -- a pitch he really improved in 2017. His 28.5 percent strikeout rate ranked fourth in the Sally League among starters who threw at least 80 innings, and while his 12.1 percent walk rate was the fourth-worst mark in the league, evaluators still expect him to grow into at least average control, thanks to his athleticism and a repeatable delivery. While he only threw 17.2 innings in the final two months of the season, this was the result of a strict innings limit, not an injury. That said, it will be critical for him to build up his workload in the coming seasons. The Braves have been aggressive with top pitching prospects, but Anderson isn't as polished as Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard were last season, so look for him to get a standard one-level bump to High-A.

The Braves selected Anderson with the third overall pick in the 2016 draft because they knew he would sign for $2.5 million less than the slot value, allowing them to go over slot with their next five picks. That's not to say Anderson isn't an impressive young hurler. Only six players in the class received more than the $4 million he signed for and he was widely considered a top-15 talent heading into the draft. The 6-foot-3, 170-pound righty already boasts a low-90s fastball and his age and body type suggest he could add velocity in the coming years. He utilizes quality secondaries in his slider and changeup while also showing advanced command/control for his age. Anderson shut out the Gulf Coast League over 18 innings before heading to the more advanced Appalachian League, where he continued to look the part of a top-10 pick. He should spend most of 2017 with Low-A Rome and has all the tools to develop into a mid-rotation arm.