Grayson Rodriguez

Grayson Rodriguez

25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Baltimore Orioles
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Rodriguez's overall numbers were not impressive, but you see a better story once you break down his season. He surprisingly opened the season with Baltimore, but went 2-2 in 10 starts with a 7.35 ERA as he struggled with homers allowing 13 home runs in 45.1 innings around 56 strikeouts and 21 walks. The front office sent him down to AAA Norfolk where he shoved to a 4-0 record with a 1.96 ERA over 8 starts with improved command, which earned him a recall to the big leagues during the All-Star break. From there, all he did was go 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA over his final 13 starts while allowing 3 homers in 76.2 innings with 73 strikeouts and 21 walks. Rodriguez ramped up his fantasy stock with his summer performance, but it comes at a cost as he increased his workload 118% from 2022 to 2023 jumping from 75.2 innings to 165 when factoring in his regular and postseason work. His previous season high was 103 innings in 2021, so keep that in mind as you consider reaching for his upside on draft day. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#110
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Orioles in March of 2024.
Fully recovered from lat injury
PBaltimore Orioles
November 15, 2024
Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Friday that Rodriguez is completely recovered from his right lat strain and will enter spring training without restrictions, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Rodriguez missed the final two months of the regular season, as well as the playoffs, due to the injury, but he had resumed throwing off a mound by September and should have a normal offseason. The right-hander finished the 2024 campaign with a 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 130:36 K:BB over 116.2 innings covering 20 starts.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
94
Last 10 Games
98
Last 5 Games
96
How many pitches does Grayson Rodriguez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Grayson Rodriguez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-27%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2022
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .239 462 118 44 99 19 3 15
Since 2022vs Right .261 544 141 34 131 23 3 16
2024vs Left .205 241 68 20 45 10 1 6
2024vs Right .279 250 62 16 64 14 1 9
2023vs Left .277 221 50 24 54 9 2 9
2023vs Right .246 294 79 18 67 9 2 7
2022vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-6%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-25%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-11%
ERA on Road
2022
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.98 1.31 124.1 10 4 0 8.8 2.9 1.3
Since 2022Away 4.25 1.27 114.1 10 4 0 10.8 3.0 1.0
2024Home 3.32 1.17 59.2 6 2 0 9.4 2.4 1.5
2024Away 4.42 1.32 57.0 7 2 0 10.7 3.2 0.8
2023Home 4.59 1.44 64.2 4 2 0 8.4 3.3 1.1
2023Away 4.08 1.22 57.1 3 2 0 10.8 2.8 1.3
2022Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Grayson Rodriguez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.61
 
K/9
10.0
 
BB/9
2.8
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
96.1 mph
 
ERA
3.86
 
WHIP
1.24
 
BABIP
.321
 
GB/FB
1.26
 
Left On Base
75.0%
 
Exit Velocity
82.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.3%
 
Spin Rate
2247 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.9%
 
Swinging Strike
13.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Rodriguez, likely the most famous prospect-eligible pitcher, exited his 11th Triple-A start June 1 with a Grade 2 lat strain. Up to that point, the revered 6-foot-5 righty logged a 2.09 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 80:14 K:BB in 56 innings. By all accounts, Rodriguez would have made his big-league debut in June had he stayed healthy. He missed exactly three months and returned for a rehab assignment and three more Triple-A starts to close the season. Understandably rusty, Rodriguez posted a 4.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and walked as many batters (14) in 19.2 innings as he did in the 56 innings before he got hurt. At full health, Rodriguez's arsenal is beyond reproach, boasting several pitches that grade as at least plus. The shoulder injury and subsequent middling performance to close the year represented his first major road bump as a pro. It remains to be seen how he will bounce back, but the market already views him as a borderline top-200 pick in super early drafts. The Orioles' team context is much better than it once was, as the home park is now a good place to pitch and Rodriguez will be throwing to all-world catcher/leader Adley Rutschman. Rodriguez totaled 75.2 innings in 2022 so targeting him in fantasy is a quality over quantity bet in 2023.
The best pitcher who has yet to pitch in the majors, Rodriguez has a chance to join Baltimore's rotation sometime in the first half of the season. He didn't belong at High-A, where he opened the season, so we can essentially ignore what he did there in five starts as a 21-year-old with a bevy of monster pitch offerings and plus control. His 18-start run at Double-A was a tour de force, as he logged a 2.60 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 31.9 K-BB% in 79.2 innings. Rodriguez only threw more than five innings in a start once, as the Orioles limited him to 103 innings on the season. The 6-foot-5 righty's mid-to-high 90s fastball, low-80s slider and changeup grade out as borderline 70-grade offerings, and his fourth pitch is an above-average curveball. We have to be careful not to get too carried away with a pitching prospect of his ilk, as there's not much difference between his scouting report and the peak scouting reports of players like Alex Reyes, Forrest Whitley and MacKenzie Gore. That said, if Rodriguez stays healthy, he has a shot to be one of the best young pitchers in the game as early as 2023. Risk averse dynasty managers may want to explore cashing him out this offseason.
Rodriguez looks the part of a front-of-the-rotation horse, sitting in the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball while standing an imposing 6-foot-5, 220 pounds. Selected out of a Texas high school with the 11th overall pick of the 2018 draft, not much about Rodriguez's profile has changed since then, but he has stayed healthy and has improved on the finer points of pitching. He projects to have three average or better secondary pitches, but there isn't a clear hierarchy in terms of which offspeed pitch (or pitches) will emerge as putaway offerings at the highest level. He has steadily improved his changeup and his slider might be his best current offspeed pitch, but it all hinges on his dominant fastball. If he locates that pitch consistently, he should develop into at least a mid-rotation starter, and if his secondary offerings trend up, Rodriguez could be the Orioles' Opening Day starter in a couple years.
Rodriguez passed his full-season debut with flying colors, leading the Sally League in K% (34.2) and K-BB% (24.7). The 6-foot-5, 220-pound righty was the third-youngest pitcher on the circuit and dominated Low-A hitters with a complete four-pitch arsenal that he commands well for a young pitcher his size. His mid-90s fastball (touches 98 mph) is a heavy offering with late life, while his curveball and slider each have a chance to be plus pitches. Rodriguez's changeup improved in pro ball and could be an above-average fourth pitch. The No. 11 overall pick in the 2018 draft had three five-inning starts with 10 strikeouts, illustrating just how dominant he can be when everything is working. It would be nice if his command improved a little, but realistically the main obstacle to him becoming at least a No. 2 starter will just be dodging a significant injury on his march to the big leagues.
For over a decade, the Orioles were the butt of jokes when it came to drafting and developing pitching prospects. They earned it. However, over the last two years they appear to be on the right track to shedding that notoriety. DL Hall, their 2017 first-round pick, and Rodriguez, their 2018 first-round pick, exhibit frontline starter traits and neither has suffered a catastrophic injury since entering Orioles custody. Rodriguez, who received a $4.3 million bonus after the Orioles selected him with the No. 11 overall pick, showcased a mid-90s fastball with late life as a Texas high schooler, but was sitting in the low-90s after signing. Velocity swings of a couple mph are not unusual for teenagers, but he will need to recapture his amateur velocity to reach his ceiling. He features a couple distinct breaking balls that could each become plus pitches down the road, and a developing changeup. At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, he is equipped to eat innings.
More Fantasy News
Will be ready for spring training
PBaltimore Orioles
Lat
October 3, 2024
Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Thursday that he expects Rodriguez (lat) to more or less by without restrictions at the beginning of spring training, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out for 2024
PBaltimore Orioles
Lat
September 25, 2024
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde announced Wednesday that Rodriguez (lat) has been shut down and won't pitch again this season, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could return as reliever
PBaltimore Orioles
Lat
September 17, 2024
Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Tuesday that it's possible Rodriguez (lat) temporarily pitches out of the bullpen when he eventually returns from the 15-day injured list, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could face hitters this week
PBaltimore Orioles
Lat
September 9, 2024
Rodriguez (lat) could face hitters at some point this week during the Orioles' road trip, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws bullpen session
PBaltimore Orioles
Lat
September 4, 2024
Rodriguez (lat) threw a bullpen session at Camden Yards on Wednesday, Baltimore Banner Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Pushing for another chance
PBaltimore Orioles
July 7, 2023
Rodriguez has a 1.83 ERA and 37.8 percent strikeout rate in six starts for Triple-A Norfolk since being sent down in late May, per Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun, and it's possible the right-hander could rejoin the big-league rotation shortly after the All-Star break.
ANALYSIS
The 23-year-old was called up for his first taste of the big leagues in early April but was demoted after he posted a 7.35 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 10 starts. Rodriguez illustrated his potential with an 11.1 K/9, but he had difficulty keeping the ball in the park with a 2.6 HR/9. Cole Irvin and Dean Kremer haven't been anything special at the back end of Baltimore's rotation, so Rodriguez's next MLB opportunity could come sooner rather than later.
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