Francisco Alvarez

23-Year-Old CatcherC

New York Mets

2024 Stats

AVG

.237

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Alvarez missed over seven weeks with a torn UCL in his left hand, suffered while catching his fall after tripping while rounding second base. When healthy, he was the Mets regular backstop, his role again this season. Alvarez will be one of the youngest starting catchers at just 23 years old; his offense is still a work in progress. His 62nd percentile hard-hit rate was down a tick from the previous season, but still promising relative to his age. Alvarez's contact rate is below average, but it's improved a tick each of his last two seasons. His patience is above average, boding well for improved quality and quantity of contact. Behind the dish, he's an excellent framer, with a great pop time. All signs point to continued improvement, with more playing time. This is probably the last time he's a borderline option in one catcher leagues. Alvarez will be a staple sooner than later. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'11"

Weight 220

DOB 11/19/2001

Drafted 2018

Breather in second game

CNew York Mets

September 30, 2024

Alvarez is out of the lineup for the second game of Monday's doubleheader in Atlanta, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
Perhaps Alvarez would have gotten the start had the Mets failed to capture the first game, but since they did win that contest it makes it an easy decision to rest him for this one. Luis Torrens will catch and bat eighth.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+10%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+19%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+27%

OPS vs RHP

2022

-100%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.668	234	25	11	37	3	.191	.291	.377
Since 2022vs Right	.737	545	68	26	74	0	.233	.295	.442
2024vs Left	.806	82	10	5	15	1	.239	.341	.465
2024vs Right	.680	260	29	6	32	0	.236	.296	.384
2023vs Left	.611	148	15	6	22	2	.171	.270	.341
2023vs Right	.777	275	36	19	41	0	.229	.291	.486
2022vs Left	.000	4	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
2022vs Right	1.150	10	3	1	1	0	.250	.400	.750
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+1%

OPS on Road

2024

+5%

OPS at Home

2023

+15%

OPS on Road

2022

-100%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.714	379	46	17	53	2	.213	.306	.408
Since 2022Away	.719	400	47	20	58	1	.228	.283	.436
2024Home	.727	166	21	7	23	1	.221	.313	.414
2024Away	.694	176	18	4	24	0	.252	.301	.393
2023Home	.670	207	22	9	29	1	.201	.290	.380
2023Away	.768	216	29	16	34	1	.217	.278	.490
2022Home	2.167	6	3	1	1	0	.500	.667	1.500
2022Away	.000	8	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000
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Stat Review

How does Francisco Alvarez compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.35

BB Rate

8.8%

K Rate

25.1%

BABIP

.291

ISO

.166

AVG

.237

OBP

.307

SLG

.403

OPS

.710

wOBA

.313

Exit Velocity

88.8 mph

Hard Hit Rate

29.7%

Barrels/PA

4.4%

Expected BA

.220

Expected SLG

.358

Sprint Speed

22.2 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

52.2%

Line Drive %

16.1%

Fly Ball %

31.7%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Francisco Alvarez Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Alvarez didn't break camp with the Mets, but he was called up a week into the season and became the regular backstop, catching two-thirds of the club's games, along with seven games as the designated hitters. Alvarez fanned 26 percent of the time, which was in range of his minor league track record. However, his walk rate was just eight percent, considerably lower than his minor league pedigree. An above average exit velocity on fly balls supported bashing 25 homers. However, Alvarez's .222 BABIP, along with an above average strikeout rate rendered him a batting average liability. Some of the low BABIP was an unusually low line drive rate, along with a low BABIP on grounders. Both should improve this season, but Alvarez's average will still likely be detrimental to a fantasy lineup. On the other hand, his power is real, and his run production should pick up as the Mets offense should improve. Alvarez's defense and framing were excellent, though he had trouble controlling the running game. Alvarez should be among the leaders in homers from catchers, just make sure you can absorb his low average.

Generally considered a top-10 real-life prospect - although more divisive on fantasy rankings - Alvarez is best known for his impressive age-to-level advancement through the minors and huge raw power. He got his first MLB cup of coffee as a 20-year-old after slashing .260/.374/.510 with a 24.8 K%, 14.1 BB% and 36.3 Hard% across Double-A and Triple-A. Alvarez, who turned 21 in November, is well ahead of the typical catcher his age on the developmental path. He is also an oddity from a physical standpoint, as he is generously listed at 5-foot-10 and a similarly favorable 233 pounds. We've seen boxy catchers have success, but there's no denying he is a 20-grade athlete who figures to get even less agile over the coming years. His hard-hit data and in-game performance suggest he could hit double-digit homers as a rookie, but it seems like a neutral batting average would be a best-case scenario. He will always be more valuable in OBP leagues. Alvarez underwent ankle surgery in October but is expected to be ready to compete for the starting catcher job in spring training.

Alvarez quickly showed that he was too advanced for an age-appropriate assignment to Low-A, hitting .417 with two home runs, five doubles, 15 walks and seven strikeouts in 15 games before getting a bump to High-A, where he was the only qualified 19-year-old hitter. His production there was still excellent, albeit less outrageous. He hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs, a 12.0 BB% and a 24.6 K% in 84 games. Given how stocky and slow he is, it's not surprising that his 49.8 Pull% and 45.2 GB% resulted in a .260 BABIP. It's unrealistic to expect Alvarez to be much better than a neutral fantasy contributor in batting average, but that's still a strong outcome for a primary catcher with at least plus power. His defense behind the plate isn't amazing, but he will stick at the position. Given how quickly he has moved up the ladder and how productive he has been, Alvarez is one of the few catching prospects with a realistic chance to be a top-five fantasy option at the position. He will reach the majors in 2023 or 2024.

Alvarez was the youngest player at the Mets' alternate training site and received rave reviews for his work on both sides of the ball. At 5-foot-11, 220 pounds, he is physically mature and his strength shows up in the form of plus all-fields power and a plus arm. His hit tool and approach are pretty advanced, but he will probably be power over hit in the majors. He was so good offensively in 2019 as a 17-year-old that some outside the organization speculated that he might be moved off catcher to fast-track his bat to the majors, but the Mets are keeping him behind the dish, which means he will need a couple more years in the minors to master the position. Evaluating catchers for dynasty leagues, especially ones who are multiple years away from contributing, is always a challenge, but he clearly has the upside to be a top-five fantasy catcher for a decade.

This offseason's catching prospect du jour, Alvarez was aggressively assigned to the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old, but that lasted just seven games (281 wRC+) before he needed to be given an even more ludicrous assignment. Six months younger than the next youngest hitter in the Appalachian League, Alvarez still managed to thrive, logging a 129 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 21.9 K% while using the whole field (35.7 Oppo%) and lifting the ball with ease (38.1 GB%). The fact that he is a catching prospect is what makes this insane, as catchers typically lag a couple years behind other position players on their march to the big leagues, due to the time and effort needed to become a capable defender. Alvarez can improve his framing, but nobody questions his ability to stick behind the plate. He could be a 60- or 70-grade hitter with plus power and good on-base skills, and his bat should keep him on a fast track.

More Fantasy News

Back in lineup

CNew York Mets

September 29, 2024

Alvarez (back) is starting at catcher and batting eighth for Sunday's game against the Brewers, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.

ANALYSIS
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Not starting Saturday

CNew York Mets

Back

September 28, 2024

Alvarez (back) isn't in the Mets' lineup Saturday against Milwaukee, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Exits early Friday

CNew York Mets

Back

September 27, 2024

Alvarez was removed from Friday's game against the Brewers with back spasms, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Power surge continues

CNew York Mets

September 22, 2024

Alvarez went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run and three RBI in Saturday's 6-3 win over the Phillies.

ANALYSIS
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Not in Friday's lineup

CNew York Mets

September 20, 2024

Alvarez is absent from the lineup for Friday's game versus the Phillies, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Slumping in second half

CNew York Mets

September 5, 2024

Alvarez has a .433 OPS with just one homer in his past 30 games and admitted in late August that he "doesn't feel powerful," per Tim Healey of Newsday.

ANALYSIS
The 22-year-old entered the All-Star break with an .844 OPS through 44 games, but he's been unable to get on track offensively over the past couple months. Alvarez showcased his power potential with 25 homers in 123 games as a rookie last season, but he has just six homers and a .134 ISO through 81 contests in 2024. His average exit velocity is down two ticks to 88.1 mph, and his 5.5 percent barrel rate and 39.9 percent hard-hit rate have both dropped off considerably from 2023. The Mets are only a half-game back of the final NL wild-card spot, and getting Alvarez back on track could improve their playoff hopes.

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