Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

22-Year-Old CatcherC
New York Mets
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Alvarez didn't break camp with the Mets, but he was called up a week into the season and became the regular backstop, catching two-thirds of the club's games, along with seven games as the designated hitters. Alvarez fanned 26 percent of the time, which was in range of his minor league track record. However, his walk rate was just eight percent, considerably lower than his minor league pedigree. An above average exit velocity on fly balls supported bashing 25 homers. However, Alvarez's .222 BABIP, along with an above average strikeout rate rendered him a batting average liability. Some of the low BABIP was an unusually low line drive rate, along with a low BABIP on grounders. Both should improve this season, but Alvarez's average will still likely be detrimental to a fantasy lineup. On the other hand, his power is real, and his run production should pick up as the Mets offense should improve. Alvarez's defense and framing were excellent, though he had trouble controlling the running game. Alvarez should be among the leaders in homers from catchers, just make sure you can absorb his low average. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#147
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Mets in March of 2024.
Breather in second game
CNew York Mets
September 30, 2024
Alvarez is out of the lineup for the second game of Monday's doubleheader in Atlanta, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Perhaps Alvarez would have gotten the start had the Mets failed to capture the first game, but since they did win that contest it makes it an easy decision to rest him for this one. Luis Torrens will catch and bat eighth.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
4
3
8
8
12
23
6
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
2
4
10
4
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+10%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+19%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
+27%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
-100%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .668 234 25 11 37 3 .191 .291 .377
Since 2022vs Right .737 545 68 26 74 0 .233 .295 .442
2024vs Left .806 82 10 5 15 1 .239 .341 .465
2024vs Right .680 260 29 6 32 0 .236 .296 .384
2023vs Left .611 148 15 6 22 2 .171 .270 .341
2023vs Right .777 275 36 19 41 0 .229 .291 .486
2022vs Left .000 4 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2022vs Right 1.150 10 3 1 1 0 .250 .400 .750
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2024
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+15%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
-100%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .714 379 46 17 53 2 .213 .306 .408
Since 2022Away .719 400 47 20 58 1 .228 .283 .436
2024Home .727 166 21 7 23 1 .221 .313 .414
2024Away .694 176 18 4 24 0 .252 .301 .393
2023Home .670 207 22 9 29 1 .201 .290 .380
2023Away .768 216 29 16 34 1 .217 .278 .490
2022Home 2.167 6 3 1 1 0 .500 .667 1.500
2022Away .000 8 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
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Stat Review
How does Francisco Alvarez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.35
 
BB Rate
8.8%
 
K Rate
25.1%
 
BABIP
.291
 
ISO
.166
 
AVG
.237
 
OBP
.307
 
SLG
.403
 
OPS
.710
 
wOBA
.313
 
Exit Velocity
88.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
29.7%
 
Barrels/PA
4.4%
 
Expected BA
.222
 
Expected SLG
.368
 
Sprint Speed
22.2 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
52.2%
 
Line Drive %
16.1%
 
Fly Ball %
31.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Generally considered a top-10 real-life prospect - although more divisive on fantasy rankings - Alvarez is best known for his impressive age-to-level advancement through the minors and huge raw power. He got his first MLB cup of coffee as a 20-year-old after slashing .260/.374/.510 with a 24.8 K%, 14.1 BB% and 36.3 Hard% across Double-A and Triple-A. Alvarez, who turned 21 in November, is well ahead of the typical catcher his age on the developmental path. He is also an oddity from a physical standpoint, as he is generously listed at 5-foot-10 and a similarly favorable 233 pounds. We've seen boxy catchers have success, but there's no denying he is a 20-grade athlete who figures to get even less agile over the coming years. His hard-hit data and in-game performance suggest he could hit double-digit homers as a rookie, but it seems like a neutral batting average would be a best-case scenario. He will always be more valuable in OBP leagues. Alvarez underwent ankle surgery in October but is expected to be ready to compete for the starting catcher job in spring training.
Alvarez quickly showed that he was too advanced for an age-appropriate assignment to Low-A, hitting .417 with two home runs, five doubles, 15 walks and seven strikeouts in 15 games before getting a bump to High-A, where he was the only qualified 19-year-old hitter. His production there was still excellent, albeit less outrageous. He hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs, a 12.0 BB% and a 24.6 K% in 84 games. Given how stocky and slow he is, it's not surprising that his 49.8 Pull% and 45.2 GB% resulted in a .260 BABIP. It's unrealistic to expect Alvarez to be much better than a neutral fantasy contributor in batting average, but that's still a strong outcome for a primary catcher with at least plus power. His defense behind the plate isn't amazing, but he will stick at the position. Given how quickly he has moved up the ladder and how productive he has been, Alvarez is one of the few catching prospects with a realistic chance to be a top-five fantasy option at the position. He will reach the majors in 2023 or 2024.
Alvarez was the youngest player at the Mets' alternate training site and received rave reviews for his work on both sides of the ball. At 5-foot-11, 220 pounds, he is physically mature and his strength shows up in the form of plus all-fields power and a plus arm. His hit tool and approach are pretty advanced, but he will probably be power over hit in the majors. He was so good offensively in 2019 as a 17-year-old that some outside the organization speculated that he might be moved off catcher to fast-track his bat to the majors, but the Mets are keeping him behind the dish, which means he will need a couple more years in the minors to master the position. Evaluating catchers for dynasty leagues, especially ones who are multiple years away from contributing, is always a challenge, but he clearly has the upside to be a top-five fantasy catcher for a decade.
This offseason's catching prospect du jour, Alvarez was aggressively assigned to the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old, but that lasted just seven games (281 wRC+) before he needed to be given an even more ludicrous assignment. Six months younger than the next youngest hitter in the Appalachian League, Alvarez still managed to thrive, logging a 129 wRC+, 11.3 BB% and 21.9 K% while using the whole field (35.7 Oppo%) and lifting the ball with ease (38.1 GB%). The fact that he is a catching prospect is what makes this insane, as catchers typically lag a couple years behind other position players on their march to the big leagues, due to the time and effort needed to become a capable defender. Alvarez can improve his framing, but nobody questions his ability to stick behind the plate. He could be a 60- or 70-grade hitter with plus power and good on-base skills, and his bat should keep him on a fast track.
More Fantasy News
Back in lineup
CNew York Mets
September 29, 2024
Alvarez (back) is starting at catcher and batting eighth for Sunday's game against the Brewers, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Saturday
CNew York Mets
Back
September 28, 2024
Alvarez (back) isn't in the Mets' lineup Saturday against Milwaukee, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Exits early Friday
CNew York Mets
Back
September 27, 2024
Alvarez was removed from Friday's game against the Brewers with back spasms, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Power surge continues
CNew York Mets
September 22, 2024
Alvarez went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run and three RBI in Saturday's 6-3 win over the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
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Not in Friday's lineup
CNew York Mets
September 20, 2024
Alvarez is absent from the lineup for Friday's game versus the Phillies, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Slumping in second half
CNew York Mets
September 5, 2024
Alvarez has a .433 OPS with just one homer in his past 30 games and admitted in late August that he "doesn't feel powerful," per Tim Healey of Newsday.
ANALYSIS
The 22-year-old entered the All-Star break with an .844 OPS through 44 games, but he's been unable to get on track offensively over the past couple months. Alvarez showcased his power potential with 25 homers in 123 games as a rookie last season, but he has just six homers and a .134 ISO through 81 contests in 2024. His average exit velocity is down two ticks to 88.1 mph, and his 5.5 percent barrel rate and 39.9 percent hard-hit rate have both dropped off considerably from 2023. The Mets are only a half-game back of the final NL wild-card spot, and getting Alvarez back on track could improve their playoff hopes.
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