Emilio Pagan

Emilio Pagan

33-Year-Old PitcherRP
Cincinnati Reds
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Pagan rebounded in a big way in 2023 with an impressive 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 65:21 K:BB over 69.1 innings for Minnesota. The 32-year-old vastly improved his ability to keep the ball inside the park, as his 0.65 HR/9 was the best mark of his career. However, Pagan's home run issues could resurface in his new home park, as the veteran recently joined Cincinnati on a multi-year pact. The right-hander is currently in line for setup duties, but with 32 career saves, he has the experience to occasionally spell closer Alexis Diaz in the ninth inning. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season
From Preseason
#382
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Reds in November of 2023. Contract includes $8 million player option for 2025. Exercised player option in November of 2024.
Exercises player option
PCincinnati Reds
November 2, 2024
Pagan exercised his $8 million player option for 2025 on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Pagan was forced to sit out the first half of the season due to a lat injury, and he accumulated a 4.50 ERA across 38 innings upon returning in mid-August. Given his decline in performance, it was unlikely he'd receive an offer close to $8 million in free agency, so the 33-year-old righty will return to Cincinnati and likely fill a high-leverage role out of the bullpen.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
16
Last 10 Games
16
Last 5 Games
18
How many pitches does Emilio Pagan generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Emilio Pagan generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-21%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .219 301 88 28 59 14 0 11
Since 2022vs Right .234 404 105 30 86 18 3 12
2024vs Left .259 63 18 8 14 2 0 6
2024vs Right .289 95 26 3 26 4 0 0
2023vs Left .206 120 33 11 22 8 0 2
2023vs Right .163 153 32 10 23 4 2 3
2022vs Left .213 118 37 9 23 4 0 3
2022vs Right .270 156 47 17 37 10 1 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-49%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-73%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.38 1.15 93.1 8 6 6 9.8 2.2 1.3
Since 2022Away 4.44 1.25 77.0 5 7 5 10.6 4.1 1.2
2024Home 5.85 1.35 20.0 3 2 0 9.0 0.9 2.3
2024Away 3.00 1.33 18.0 1 3 1 12.0 4.5 0.5
2023Home 1.27 0.85 35.1 2 1 0 7.6 2.0 0.3
2023Away 4.76 1.06 34.0 3 1 1 9.3 3.4 1.1
2022Home 4.03 1.32 38.0 3 3 6 12.3 3.1 1.7
2022Away 5.04 1.44 25.0 1 3 3 11.5 4.7 1.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Emilio Pagan compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.00
 
K/9
10.4
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
94.6 mph
 
ERA
4.50
 
WHIP
1.34
 
BABIP
.350
 
GB/FB
0.71
 
Left On Base
72.8%
 
Exit Velocity
82.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.8%
 
Spin Rate
2400 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.5%
 
Swinging Strike
14.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Pagan was among the candidates to close for the Padres last spring, but San Diego sent him packing in an Opening Day trade with Minnesota. Taylor Rogers' departure created a void at closer for the Twins, but Rocco Baldelli announced that the newly-acquired Pagan would be part of a committee. Showcasing an improved strikeout rate (12.0 K/9), the veteran ended up recording nine of the Twins' 16 saves through mid-June, but was ousted from closing after a string of blowups later that month. Of course, home runs were still an issue (1.7 HR/9), but Pagan issued more free passes than he ever has (3.7 BB/9) en-route to a career-worst 1.37 WHIP. He has one more year on his contract with Minnesota and is unlikely to be in the team's conversation for saves in 2023.
After saving 20 games for Tampa Bay in 2019 and two for San Diego in 2020, many assumed Pagan would be in the Padres mix for saves last season. The closer role ultimately went to Mark Melancon, who led the league with 39 saves and had high security in the job all year. Pagan's 2.3 HR/9 was second-worst among qualified relievers and was the main reason he never really threatened Melancon for save chances. He allowed 24 barrels among 174 batted ball events, a 13.8% clip that was among the worst in baseball. These struggles resulted in a career-worst 4.83 ERA (4.67 xERA, 5.22 FIP) across his 67 appearances. However, the 30-year-old improved his walk rate (6.8%) and recorded a career-high 19 holds in a setup role. Pagan has a wide range of outcomes for 2022, which include the possibility of save chances in San Diego, or a possible trade due to his rising arbitration salary and pending free agency in 2024.
After racking up 20 saves for the Rays in 2019, Pagan was acquired by San Diego to fill a setup role in the bullpen. His campaign got off to a rocky beginning, however, as he held a 7.36 ERA along with four blown saves nearly a month into the season. Much to his credit, the right-hander rebounded from the rough start, holding opponents scoreless in 10 of his final 11 appearances and picking up two saves after both Kirby Yates and Drew Pomeranz went down with injuries. Of concern, Pagan's fastball velocity dropped a tick, and his strikeout rate (26.4%) was merely average after coming in at an elite 36.0% mark the previous season. In addition, Pagan struggled with both his command and control, registering a 1.6 HR/9 and a career-worst 10.3 BB%. Both numbers improved over the final five weeks of the season, so his 2021 success (and role) could hinge on how much of that momentum carries over to spring training.
The Rays acquired Pagan in December 2018 after he took a step back during his year with the A's, but he ended up finishing the 2019 season as the team's main closer (20-for-28 in save chances). He was traded yet again in February, this time to San Diego, where he figures to set up in front of Kirby Yates. Pagan increased his K% nearly 12 percentage points to 36.0% as he added almost two mph to his fastball, which averaged 95.5 mph. Pagan finished the season with a 2.31 ERA and 0.83 WHIP while relying more on his slider, which also saw a spike in velocity of almost three mph. The loss of the ninth-inning role following the trade to the Padres takes Pagan off the table in most standard mixed leagues, but Pagan should break camp with a high-leverage role and is still very much appealing in leagues counting holds.
Pagan was a deep-league sleeper last offseason on the back of a campaign in which he struck out 28.6% of batters while walking just 4.1%. Both marks went in the wrong direction in 2018, though he was still above average in both statistical categories. Pagan has a heavy flyball lean and that has led to some homer problems at the highest level. Following a trade to the Rays, his third team, he joins an organization with a reputation for getting the most out of its pitchers. Perhaps he will get some run as an opener. Either way he should see a fairly heavy workload, and with a fairly high strikeout rate, Pagan remains a candidate to be a non-closing reliever with fantasy value.
Turning 27 in May, Pagan isn't young, but his rookie stint with the Mariners made him a fresh name to watch. Averaging at least 10.2 K/9 in his last two seasons combined between Double-A and Triple-A, the right-hander fanned 56 and walked just eight across his first 50.1 major-league innings last year. Among big-league relievers with 50-plus innings in 2017, he ranked 18th with a 24.5 K-BB percentage, and the 1.4 BB/9 shows he's not just a high-whiff, high-walk filler arm. His rising fastball hits the mid-90s to pair with an effective slider, and harnessing his changeup could elevate him even more. Home runs probably will be an issue because he works up in the zone (56.9 percent flyball rate in his first year), but perhaps his new park will help. He was dealt to the Athletics early this offseason and may find himself in the mix for setup work or even save chances.
More Fantasy News
Contract decision looming
PCincinnati Reds
November 1, 2024
Pagan has an $8 million option for the 2025 season that he's expected to exercise this offseason, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Collects first save
PCincinnati Reds
September 10, 2024
Pagan allowed two hits and a walk while striking out three over a scoreless inning to earn the save in Tuesday's 3-0 win over the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Working as opener Wednesday
PCincinnati Reds
August 13, 2024
Pagan will serve as the Reds' opening pitcher for Wednesday's game against the Cardinals, Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Comes off IL
PCincinnati Reds
August 10, 2024
The Reds reinstated Pagan (lat) from the 60-day injured list Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Could return vs. Brewers
PCincinnati Reds
Lat
August 9, 2024
Pagan (lat) is with the Reds for their weekend series against the Brewers, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Receiving interest from Reds
PFree Agent
November 29, 2023
The Reds are among the teams showing interest in Pagan, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
Pagan would seem to be a poor fit for Great American Ball Park given his extreme flyball tendencies. The 32-year-old is coming off a terrific 2023 season, though, having collected a 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 65:21 K:BB over 69.1 frames. He should be able to land a multi-year pact this winter.
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