Cristian Javier

27-Year-Old PitcherSP

Houston Astros

Out

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 7/20/2025

2024 Stats

W-L

3-1

ERA

3.89

WHIP

1.41

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Javier made just seven starts in 2024 before requiring Tommy John surgery, which will sideline him for at least the first half of 2025. Astros GM Dana Brown expressed optimism for a return in late July, but the right-hander has a significant way to go in his recovery. Javier had a 3.89 ERA and 27:19 K:BB over 34.2 innings prior to the injury, though those results may have been affected by the injury. He'll likely have a limited workload if he can return in 2025, so fantasy managers are better off targeting 2026 for Javier. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 170

DOB 3/26/1997

Drafted 2015

GM hoping for late July return

PHouston Astros

Elbow

October 3, 2024

Astros general manager Dana Brown said Thursday that Javier (elbow) is projected to return in late July of next season, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
It's an ambitious timeline considering Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Any projected timetable at this stage of rehab is approximate, but it does appear Brown expects Javier to have a good shot to contribute shortly after the All-Star break next season.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Cristian Javier generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Cristian Javier generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-30%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-46%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-31%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-22%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.240	768	169	77	163	38	5	23
Since 2022vs Right	.169	654	211	56	99	22	1	23
2024vs Left	.306	74	10	11	19	6	0	3
2024vs Right	.164	76	17	8	11	3	1	1
2023vs Left	.273	372	69	35	90	21	4	12
2023vs Right	.189	315	90	27	53	12	0	13
2022vs Left	.189	322	90	31	54	11	1	8
2022vs Right	.147	263	104	21	35	7	0	9
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-38%

ERA at Home

2024

-84%

ERA at Home

2023

-28%

ERA at Home

2022

-20%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	2.78	1.05	171.2	14	7	0	10.0	3.1	1.0
Since 2022Away	4.46	1.23	173.2	10	8	0	9.8	3.8	1.4
2024Home	1.93	1.14	28.0	3	0	0	7.4	3.9	0.6
2024Away	12.15	2.55	6.2	0	1	0	5.4	9.5	2.7
2023Home	3.71	1.21	68.0	5	2	0	9.4	2.8	0.9
2023Away	5.17	1.31	94.0	5	3	0	8.4	3.9	1.7
2022Home	2.26	0.89	75.2	6	5	0	11.4	3.2	1.2
2022Away	2.84	1.01	73.0	5	4	0	12.1	3.1	0.9
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Cristian Javier compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

1.42

K/9

7.0

BB/9

4.9

HR/9

1.0

Fastball

91.7 mph

ERA

3.89

WHIP

1.41

BABIP

.269

GB/FB

0.53

Left On Base

76.0%

Exit Velocity

81.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.5%

Spin Rate

2444 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

18.5%

Swinging Strike

10.5%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Cristian Javier Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Astros Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Cristian Javier See More

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218 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Javier posted career highs with 31 starts and 162 innings. However, his skills fell precipitously from the previous season. Most notably, Javier's slider wasn't nearly as effective, fueling a strikeout rate drop from 33.2 percent to 23.1 percent. His 3.44 BB/9 compared to a 3.15 BB/9 in 2022 suggests a decline in control, but Javier's BB% was nearly identical to the previous campaign. The reason is his BABIP last year was .272, 48 points higher than the .228 mark from 2022. The increase in base runners bumped up the plate appearance denominator in BB%. As a fly ball pitcher, a .272 BABIP is plausible; he was fortunate the prior season. Inconsistent release points rendered Javier's slider and four-seam fastball less dominant, but he showed signs of improvement down the stretch and into the postseason. The Astros are a smart organization, so Javier will probably make the needed adjustments. Still, expecting a rebound to 2022 levels is aggressive. Splitting the difference between the last two seasons is the sage approach.

After throwing only 101.1 innings in 2021, Javier started the year in the bullpen with the intention of conserving innings for the playoffs. The plan worked perfectly as Javier ended up starting 25 of his 30 appearances, compiling 148.2 frames before dominating in the postseason. Javier benefited from a fortunate 83.6% LOB mark and .228 BABIP. With a 26% groundball rate, his low 9.1% HR/FB mark came in handy. Javier's success wasn't just luck-driven as he posted a career high 24.3% K-BB%, the eighth best among pitchers with at least 140 innings. He used his four-seamer 60% of the time and a slider at a 28% clip. These are Javier's best pitches, but he mixes in a curve and changeup. He's due an ERA correction, but the kid gloves should be off with Javier working with no innings restrictions. Fly ball pitchers carry extra risk, but Javier's 33% strikeout rate limits concerns, so he warrants SP2/SP3 status.

Javier came into 2021 with some noise given his efforts during his rookie season, but 2021 was a bit all over the place. He opened the season in the rotation, and even tied a franchise record by striking out the first eight batters of a game in his third start. By the end of May, he was 3-1 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and was holding hitters to a .171 average. Despite the success, the club decided to move him to the bullpen as Jake Odorizzi and Framber Valdez joined the rotation, and Javier's value plunged as he went on to win one game, save two others and run into issues with walks and homers out of the bullpen around plenty of strikeouts. Those issues carried over into the postseason as well. In all, he showed both what he is capable of when things are going right for him as well as how bad things can get when he struggles to locate his offerings. He is at his best when he is isn't overusing his fastball.

It's fairly easy to see that Javier overachieved as a rookie with a 5-2 record and 3.48 ERA over 12 appearances (10 starts) for the Astros. He served up 11 HR in 54.1 regular-season innings, and of course the estimators will ding him for all those long balls and a 86.2 LOB% (4.94 FIP, 4.86 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA). At age 23, Javier did not light up the radar gun with a four-seamer that averaged just 92.2 mph, but his slider was virtually unhittable. The right-hander threw 227 sliders during the regular season and allowed four hits, all singles, with 24 strikeouts. The changeup and curveball were distant third and fourth offerings, and the fact that Javier is currently mostly a fastball-slider pitcher leaves open a good deal of bullpen risk. Indeed the bullpen is where Javier spent the postseason. If the third pitch comes along, Javier could take off as the other pieces are there. Don't write off the possibility.

An international signee out of the Dominican Republic, Javier was added to the Astros 40-man roster, shielding him from the Rule 5 draft. The 6-foot-1 righthander features a fastball in the low 90s, touching 96. Not surprisingly considering the organization, what Javier's fastball lacks in velocity is made up for via high spin. He throws a curve and slider, both highly reliant on rotation. Javier's fate may depend on how well he develops his change-up, an offering better with less spin. With that effective pitch to combat lefthanders, Javier's long-term role is in the rotation with the bullpen as a fallback. Javier worked at three levels last season, finishing with a short stint at Triple-A Round Rock where he'll likely start the 2020 campaign. Javier has excelled at every level. If he impresses with the Express, he could get a look as a reliever later in the season as Houston often does with young arms.

More Fantasy News

Moved to 60-day IL

PHouston Astros

Elbow

June 16, 2024

The Astros transferred Javier (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Tommy John surgery scheduled

PHouston Astros

Elbow

June 4, 2024

Javier (forearm) is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery Thursday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Goes on IL for right forearm

PHouston Astros

Forearm

May 27, 2024

The Astros placed Javier on the 15-day injured list Monday due to right forearm discomfort.

ANALYSIS
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Dealing with forearm discomfort

PHouston Astros

Forearm

May 26, 2024

Javier is dealing with forearm discomfort and didn't throw his scheduled bullpen session Sunday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.

ANALYSIS
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Shaky results in no-decision

PHouston Astros

May 22, 2024

Javier did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's win over the Angels, allowing four runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out one over four innings.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Losing rotation spot?

PHouston Astros

September 17, 2023

The Astros have yet to announce a starter for Wednesday's game against the Orioles, which would be Javier's typical turn through the rotation, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

ANALYSIS
Javier allowed two earned runs over five innings during his previous start but has a 6.99 ERA across his past 14 outings, dating back to June 21. The right-hander has been a staple of Houston's rotation over the past few years, but he's been unable to replicate the 3.05 ERA he posted from 2020-22 and could be at risk of losing his place in the rotation.

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