Casey Mize

27-Year-Old PitcherSP

Detroit Tigers

2025 Stats

W-L

0-0

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.00

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Mize has yet to fully live up to his potential as the first pick of the 2018 draft, and injuries have played a big role in slowing him down. The righty missed all of the 2023 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and again spent a chunk of the season on the injured list in 2024. This time around it was a hamstring strain that cost Mize about two months and limited him to 102.1 innings overall. That's actually the second-highest mark of Mize's career, behind the 150.1 innings he logged back in 2021. The 27-year-old has shown flashes of being a strong MLB starter, though he's yet to maintain it over long stretches of time, and he has a middling 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for his career, along with an uninspiring 6.99 K/9. The Tigers undoubtedly want to see Mize take the next step forward as a staff anchor alongside ace lefty Tarik Skubal, so the former should once again have a rotation spot heading into 2025. However, at some point Mize needs to turn his upside into actual production, and he's hard to trust in fantasy until that happens. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#389

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 220

DOB 5/1/1997

Born Springville, AL

College Auburn

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 DET

Appears locked into rotation

PDetroit Tigers

March 22, 2025

Mize is expected to open the 2025 season as Detroit's No. 4 starter, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
The Tigers informed Kenta Maeda that he will begin the season in the bullpen and later optioned Keider Montero, leaving Mize and Jackson Jobe to round out the Tigers' Opening Day rotation. Both players should have some runway with Alex Cobb (hip) expected to miss at least the first month. Mize put up a 1.13 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 18:7 K:BB in 16 innings this spring, a vast improvement on his regular-season numbers from a year ago (4.49 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 78:29 K:BB in 102.1 innings).

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Pitching Stats

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2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2025

No Stats

2024

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2023

No Stats

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2023vs Left	.275	226	45	16	56	9	3	5
Since 2023vs Right	.305	226	33	13	65	11	1	6
2025vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2025vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024vs Left	.275	226	45	16	56	9	3	5
2024vs Right	.305	226	33	13	65	11	1	6
2023vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2023

-11%

ERA at Home

2025

No Stats

2024

-11%

ERA at Home

2023

No Stats

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2023Home	4.26	1.30	57.0	0	3	0	7.3	1.7	0.9
Since 2023Away	4.76	1.68	45.1	2	3	0	6.4	3.6	1.0
2025Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2025Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2024Home	4.26	1.30	57.0	0	3	0	7.3	1.7	0.9
2024Away	4.76	1.68	45.1	2	3	0	6.4	3.6	1.0
2023Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Prospect Rankings History

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Casey Mize See More

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Homers up but...

Yesterday

Todd Zola presents the weekly pitcher rankings for the first full week of the regular season, with a few big names leading the way.

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

Yesterday

The American League free-agent pool features a lot of targets after the first full weekend of the season including top Red Sox prospect Kristian Campbell, who looks like he's in Boston to stay.

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: We Made It!

5 days ago

Tarik Skubal's Cy Young defense gets off to a tough start this weekend as he takes on the defending champions in Dodger Stadium. Where does he rank in Todd Zola's first pitcher rankings of the year?

Spring Training Job Battles: Final AL Update

6 days ago

Catch up on the players who won jobs in the final days of camp around the American League, including Cam Smith of the Astros.

Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

9 days ago

Jesse Siegel is back for a new season and focuses on a few top prospects set for plenty of big-league playing time.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

When healthy, Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. However, an elbow injury cut his 2022 campaign short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter for Detroit. The 26-year-old should have a rotation spot locked up heading into 2024, though the Tigers will undoubtedly limit his workload, and it's fair to expect some rust. Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there, and fantasy managers will be keeping a watchful eye on how he looks early in the season. However, the best bet for now is to temper expectations and probably not count on Mize for consistent production right away. He's still only made 39 starts at the MLB level, so even if he wasn't returning from a major surgery, the young righty would probably be a volatile option anyways.

After a promising 2021 campaign, Mize seemed primed for big things in 2022, but he only made two starts before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and now seems likely to miss most if not all of 2023. It's a big blow for the Tigers, who drafted Mize first overall in 2018. His MLB debut season in 2020 wasn't great, as he posted 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 28.1 innings. However, given a longer look in 2021, Mize pitched much better. He tallied a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 150.1 innings, though his 7.06 K/9 and 4.71 FIP suggested he wasn't overly dominant. Still, it was a good campaign overall, and given Mize's prospect pedigree, it's fair to think that he has another level yet to reach. That will just have to wait until 2024 and beyond, so fantasy managers can ignore Mize in standard leagues, though he still has plenty of upside in keeper and dynasty formats.

After a disappointing 2020, albeit only 28.1 innings, Mize rebounded to exhibit why the Tigers used the first overall pick in 2018 to secure his services. OK, he wasn't dominant, but he teased his potential and he's embarking on just his age-25 season. Detroit did a good job managing Mize's workload, giving him extra rest down the stretch. After compiling 150.1 frames last season, the kid gloves should be off. Mize needs to miss more bats as a 19.3 K% won't get it done, at least not if he's going to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. He throws five pitches with only his four-season fastball and slider topping a 10% swinging strike rate, and just barely at that. Five pitches are a lot to work with, so it's too early to give up on more whiffs. Maybe Mize's future is a mid-rotation innings eater. The cost to find out is reasonable and there should be opportunities to stream in a weak division.

Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie.

During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.

There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.

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Another strong outing

PDetroit Tigers

March 1, 2025

Mize tossed three scoreless innings in Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Phillies. He walked one and struck out two.