Carlos Hernandez

Carlos Hernandez

27-Year-Old PitcherRP
Kansas City Royals
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Hernandez worked as a reliever in 2023, making a career-high 67 appearances while getting plenty of high-leverage looks. The 6-foot-4, 250-pound righty racked up 17 holds and four saves for the Royals, but the quality of his innings was lackluster despite adding velocity to his fastball that he threw 99.1 mph on average. He posted an ERA over 5.00 for the second consecutive year along with a 1.33 WHIP that was a bottom-50 mark among relief pitchers. The 26-year-old particularly struggled down the stretch, with a 12.91 ERA in September and more walks issued (nine) than strikeouts (four). Hernandez's inflated ratios make him hard to trust for fantasy purposes, but he could still be worth a late-round gamble considering his strikeout and walk rates are trending in the right direction. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season
From Preseason
#362
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $1.01 million contract with the Royals in January of 2024.
Moves up from Triple-A
PKansas City Royals
August 26, 2024
The Royals recalled Hernandez from Triple-A Omaha on Monday.
ANALYSIS
He'll absorb the roster spot vacated by Will Smith (back), who was placed on the injured list. Hernandez has permitted eight runs (six earned) with a 14:9 K:BB over 15.2 frames this season during his time with the big club.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
21
Last 10 Games
21
Last 5 Games
23
How many pitches does Carlos Hernandez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Carlos Hernandez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-32%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-23%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-31%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-45%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .209 319 75 38 58 18 2 6
Since 2022vs Right .306 376 64 40 100 23 1 12
2024vs Left .250 61 12 7 13 5 0 1
2024vs Right .193 68 15 9 11 3 0 0
2023vs Left .189 145 42 17 24 7 1 2
2023vs Right .273 155 35 14 38 10 1 8
2022vs Left .214 113 21 14 21 6 1 3
2022vs Right .389 153 14 17 51 10 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
Even Split
2024
 
 
-76%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-9%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 5.65 1.65 71.2 1 8 1 7.9 5.3 1.1
Since 2022Away 5.66 1.40 84.1 0 8 3 8.1 3.8 1.0
2024Home 7.00 1.89 9.0 0 1 0 9.0 6.0 1.0
2024Away 1.71 1.10 21.0 0 0 0 7.7 4.3 0.0
2023Home 5.50 1.47 36.0 1 5 1 9.5 4.3 1.5
2023Away 5.03 1.18 34.0 0 5 3 10.3 3.7 1.1
2022Home 5.40 1.80 26.2 0 2 0 5.4 6.4 0.7
2022Away 9.20 1.88 29.1 0 3 0 5.8 3.7 1.5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Carlos Hernandez compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.69
 
K/9
8.1
 
BB/9
4.8
 
HR/9
0.3
 
Fastball
97.9 mph
 
ERA
3.30
 
WHIP
1.33
 
BABIP
.285
 
GB/FB
0.63
 
Left On Base
67.4%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.4%
 
Spin Rate
2303 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.7%
 
Swinging Strike
11.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
Typically, a 97 mph fastball would be an encouraging sign, but while Hernandez has velocity, he's yet to do much with it. Hitters tagged his primary pitch for a .366 batting average and .581 slugging percentage in 2022, leading to an ugly 7.39 ERA and 1.84 WHIP across 56 innings. Hernandez started only seven of his 27 appearances last season, posting a 9.10 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 29.2 innings in the rotation. His time as a reliever was rather unconvincing as well, though he allowed multiple runs in just three of his last 18 appearances. If he can make his pitches more evasive and trim down an ugly 11.7 percent walk rate, there's some upside here as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. It won't do fantasy managers much good if he ends up in a dreaded swingman role or in the minors to begin 2023, though it's a possibility if he doesn't adjust.
Hernandez began the season as a reliever then transitioned to the Royals rotation after the break. He throws four pitches, led by a 97-mph fastball. While it's curious his K% was only 20.7%, Hernandez's swinging strike mark portended a rate a couple ticks higher. That said, unless Hernandez improves his 11.5% BB%, he'll need more than a few additional punch outs to manage his ratios. To that end, his 3.68 ERA was pegged as at least a run lucky by its estimators. He benefited from a fortunate .267 BABIP and 7.3% HR/FB mark along with a 74.7% LOB mark, three points above league average. Hernandez has a live arm worth a speculative investment with a strong chance to win a spot in Kansas City's rotation. Just don't expect last season's ERA, though fewer walks puts a repeat in play.
Despite not having pitched above Low-A prior to last season, the Royals brought Hernandez to their alternate training site and eventually gave him three big-league starts in September. The 23-year-old predictably struggled, but his numbers could have been a lot worse, all things considered. Hernandez has the raw stuff to justify that jump in competition, averaging 96.2 mph with his power sinker last year and having touched triple digits with his four-seamer in the minors. He also features a curveball and changeup that have both flashed plus on occasion. Hernandez has the big, sturdy frame to handle a starting role, but he's had trouble staying healthy, slowing his development, and his career high in innings in any season is only 79.1 The Royals have enough pitching depth that they don't need to throw Hernandez back into the fire right away, but he's put himself in the team's future rotation plans.
More Fantasy News
Optioned to Triple-A
PKansas City Royals
August 19, 2024
The Royals optioned Hernandez to Triple-A Omaha on Monday, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Returns to majors
PKansas City Royals
August 10, 2024
The Royals recalled Hernandez from Triple-A Omaha on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Sent to Triple-A
PKansas City Royals
July 5, 2024
The Royals optioned Hernandez to Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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Handed loss Tuesday
PKansas City Royals
June 25, 2024
Hernandez (0-1) took the loss versus the Marlins on Tuesday, allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits while striking out one over two-thirds of an inning.
ANALYSIS
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Back in majors
PKansas City Royals
June 18, 2024
The Royals recalled Hernandez from Triple-A Omaha on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Drawing significant interest
PKansas City Royals
July 28, 2023
Hernandez continues to draw interest as the trade deadline approaches, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Feinsand writes that Scott Barlow is the likelier Royals reliever to be traded because he's under team control for just one additional year, as opposed to Hernandez who won't reach free agency until 2028. It's possible Kansas City could look to sell high on the 26-year-old though, as he's in the midst of a breakout season that has seen him post a 3.78 ERA and 57:13 K:BB over 50 innings.
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