Alek Manoah

Last year was an absolute nightmare for Manoah. After compiling a stellar 2.60 ERA and 307:91 K:BB over his first 308.1 major-league innings between 2021-22, the burly right-hander sunk to a 5.87 ERA and 79:59 K:BB across 87.1 innings in 2023 and was even demoted to the minors on two different occasions. He received injections for discomfort in his right arm toward the end of the year, which is about the only thing to point to for how he suddenly lost his fastball and slider command. Manoah, 26, might be the riskiest bet on the board this winter -- pitcher or hitter -- given the wide range of where he'll be selected from draft to draft and the wide range of possible outcomes for his 2024 stat line. We've seen what the fantasy ceiling looks like and how valuable Manoah can be as a front-line starter on a good Blue Jays team, but we also now have an unfortunate taste of his rather frightening floor.

Manoah had a fantastic sophomore season embracing the role of staff ace and performing like one for those fantasy managers who took the leap of faith with the big guy. The strikeout rate was not as strong as hoped, but he cut down on his walks and was once again one of the toughest pitchers in the league to hit. The slider was once again his bread and butter pitch, but he can still overpower hitters with the fastball and the changeup took a very nice step forward in 2022 becoming more of a weapon against lefties than it was in his rookie season gaining some whiffiness along the way. He has never had a season at any level where he has worked anywhere near the volume he worked in 2022, but his physique could insulate him from the regression we have seen from other younger arms who have gone through similar workload spikes in their mid 20s. Quite honestly, that is the only risk here because all the arrows point in a positive direction for him this coming season.

Lance Lynn's physique doppleganger had an excellent rookie season, helping Toronto stay in the postseason race until the season's final day. His size and deception were tough for the league to pick up as he had greater than 30% Whiff rates on both his four-seamer and slider last season while the league hit .200 or worse against both offerings. The slider was particularly filthy with its ability to head toward home plate and seemingly change lanes like tourists driving on the interstate near Disney World out of nowhere. A slip on the dugout stairs leading to the IL and a five-game suspension for intentionally hitting Maikel Franco were the only blemishes on an otherwise stellar rookie resume. The next challenge for him is going to be working on the changeup to keep lefties at bay as lefty-laden lineups were more of a challenge while righties often walked back to the dugout in frustration.

Last season was supposed to be Manoah's breakout, but as with most prospects, the pandemic set a different course. After spring training got put on hold, he opened a gym in a Miami warehouse with his brother, where he worked on his strength and conditioning with regular games of catch mixed in. Manoah then headed to the Jays' alternate training site where he worked all summer on his changeup, among other things. At 6-foot-6, 270 pounds, Manoah has a CC Sabathia/Aaron Harang type of body that will generate skepticism from many, but so far it has not hindered his development. His mid-90s fastball (touches 98) and putaway slider remain, and he is now confident enough in his changeup to throw it to same-handed hitters in a full count. Without a full season to build up endurance, Manoah spent this offseason working on endurance and lower-body training. His breakout season may just be a year behind schedule.

Manoah arguably has the highest ceiling among the college pitchers selected in the 2019 draft, but there are a couple areas of concern. First, he did not demonstrate starter-level strike-throwing ability until his final year at West Virginia. Secondly, his 6-foot-6, 260-pound physique is matched by very few big-league starters -- CC Sabathia and Aaron Harang come to mind as having comparable bodies when they broke in as starting pitchers. That said, he has a plus mid-90s fastball with movement and a hard slider that could develop into a second plus pitch. Only his good traits were on display in a 17-inning debut in the Northwest League, where he logged a 39.7 K% and 7.4 BB%, but he never went more than four innings in an outing. He should be sent to Low-A or High-A for his first full season, where he will be tasked with getting more consistent with his slider, refining his changeup and honing his command.