Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Nola posted a mid-4.00 ERA in 2023 and rebounded last season with a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 197:50 K:BB over 199.1 innings. It's the first time he's failed to eclipse 200 strikeouts in a full season since 2017, and his 8.9 K/9 is the worst mark since his rookie campaign. The right-hander also surrendered 30-plus home runs for the second straight season. Nola's run of extreme durability has been impressive, and he hasn't missed a start since 2017. Zack Wheeler remains the clear ace of Philadelphia's staff, but Nola is a strong and reliable No. 2 arm even though his 92.1-mph average fastball velocity is down a half tick from a couple years ago. He hasn't produced a sub-4.00 ERA in back-to-back seasons over the past four years, but there's no reason he can't buck that trend in 2025. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#96
ADP
$Signed a seven-year, $172 million contract with the Phillies in November of 2023. Contract includes $50,000 incentive for each All-Star Game appearance and Gold Glove Award, a $1 million trade assignment bonus for 2024 and 2025 and an $100,000 incentive for a Cy Young Award and $50,000 and $25,000 for second- and third-place finishes, respectively.
Strong in spring debut
PPhiladelphia Phillies
March 2, 2025
Nola struck out two and allowed one hit and no walks over two scoreless innings during Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Tigers.
ANALYSIS
According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, the right-hander was focused on commanding his fastball and changeup and completely avoided using his knuckle-curve, which was his most-used pitch last year at 32.9 percent. Opposing batters hit .279 against his changeup in 2024, and turning that into a more reliable offering could help him improve upon the 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 197:50 K:BB he posted across 33 regular-season starts last season.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2023
Even Split
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .238 783 178 55 172 36 3 34
Since 2023vs Right .249 830 221 40 195 38 2 28
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .236 419 88 30 91 19 1 18
2024vs Right .259 401 109 20 98 20 1 12
2023vs Left .240 364 90 25 81 17 2 16
2023vs Right .241 429 112 20 97 18 1 16
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-39%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.29 1.04 191.2 13 7 0 9.6 2.0 1.3
Since 2023Away 4.69 1.31 201.1 13 10 0 8.7 2.3 1.6
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.29 1.10 104.0 7 4 0 9.3 2.3 1.3
2024Away 3.87 1.31 95.1 7 4 0 8.5 2.3 1.4
2023Home 3.29 0.97 87.2 6 3 0 10.0 1.7 1.2
2023Away 5.43 1.30 106.0 6 6 0 8.9 2.4 1.7
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Nola shocked many when he decided to re-up with the Phillies for seven years rather than test the free agent waters in what was a lucrative market with multiple big market teams looking for pitching. Then again, Nola has pitched very well at Citizens Bank Ballpark over the years whereas his struggles have more recently been away from Philly. You may be surprised to learn that Nola pitched to a 3.29 ERA with 12 homers in 87.2 innings at home in 2023, but had a 5.43 ERA with 20 homers in 106 innings on the road last season. He is a rare bird in that he has not missed a single start since missing a handful of starts in the 2017 season and has pitched at least 180 innings in each of the past five full seasons. He has become rather stingy with walks in recent years while continuing to get 200+ strikeouts year after year. 2021 and 2023 have a familiar look to them and Nola absolutely has the ability to bounce back in 2024 as he did in 2022 while deciding to continue his career where it began.
Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October.
How much do you trust ERA estimators? The answer probably determines how much you like Nola heading into 2022. His 4.63 ERA, easily his worst since 2016, suggests he wasn't very good last year. Advanced metrics universally liked him far more than that, with FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all placing him between 3.26 and 3.39, and it's not hard to see why. He combined a career-best 5.2 BB% with a 29.8 K%, with his K-BB% ranking fifth among qualified starters. The main downside was his career-low 40.5% groundball rate, which led to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. That's far from a terrible groundball rate, however, so if he maintains a similar strikeout and walk rate while posting groundball numbers closer to his career 48.7% mark he could be in line for one of his best seasons. He's also remarkably durable, with a single brief absence due to contact tracing representing his only trip to the injured list since 2017.
Nola was a rare bright spot on the Phillies' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, the second-best mark of his six-year career. That helped him to a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young race, his second top-10 showing in the last three seasons. There's a case he deserved even better, as Baseball Prospectus' DRA pegged him as the top starter in the NL, while his 2.79 xFIP ranked second. His big improvement last season came in his strikeout rate, which had settled in between 25% and 27% in that category over the previous four seasons but jumped all the way up to 33.2% last year, good for sixth among qualified starters, just ahead of Gerrit Cole. That jump was backed up by an increase in his whiff rate from 26.6% to 31.3%. If those gains hold in 2021, he could move into the back of the top tier of fantasy arms, jumping up from the solid second-tier option he's been in recent seasons.
Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace.
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Notches 14th victory in finale
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 29, 2024
Nola (14-8) picked up the win Sunday against the Nationals, allowing three earned runs on nine hits and zero walks while striking out seven in five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Wins lucky No. 13
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 23, 2024
Nola (13-8) earned the win Monday, allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings against the Cubs. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Unlucky to take no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 18, 2024
Nola allowed a run on three hits and a walk while striking out nine over seven innings in a no-decision versus the Brewers on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Rough night vs. Mets
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 13, 2024
Nola (12-8) took the loss Friday against the Mets, allowing six runs on six hits and two walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Slips against Fish
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 8, 2024
Nola (12-7) took the loss Saturday, giving up five runs (four earned) on nine hits and two walks over 4.2 innings as the Phillies fell 9-5 to the Marlins. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Turns down more money
PPhiladelphia Phillies
November 19, 2023
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Nola turned down more money elsewhere to re-sign with the Phillies on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander agreed to a seven-year, $172 million pact with Philadelphia but apparently had more lucrative deals on the table. The contract includes full no-trade protection and no opt outs, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, so Nola will remain with the Phillies for the duration of the deal unless he approves a trade.
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