Oak's Corner: Puig Still Your Friend?

The Week That Was

Yasiel Puig was one of the bigger draft helium guys between December and the start of the season after he was dealt from the Dodgers to the Reds. Many drafters saw not only the appeal of him playing half of his games in Great American Ballpark, but it also eliminated the playing time risk that Puig often encountered because of the extreme depth the Dodgers have up and down the lineup. In addition, the move to Cincy also made it quite likely that Puig would hit in the middle of the order every single night.

Puig has responded to this hype with a miserable first month of the season, hitting only .178 after yet another 0-for-4 on Thursday, this time against Noah Syndergaard. The most concerning aspect of Puig's start is the large jump in his strikeout rate. For someone with the reputation as a bit of a wild swinger, Puig has struck out in less than 20 percent of his plate appearances in each of the last two seasons. He may be pressing trying to make something happen in his new digs, but Puig's strikeout rate currently sits at an elevated 26.3 percent. In addition, his walk rate is way down to 4.5 percent from 8.1 percent in 2018 and 11.2 percent in 2017.

His batted ball profile is a reason for some optimism, as he has managed to maintain his 2018 hard hit bump with a 38.2 percent rate currently. In addition, he is hitting a more fly balls at 44.7 percent, which is a good sign for his homers, especially as it warms up in Cincy. Puig's HR/FB is about 20 percent over the last two years, so it's likely that his current 11.8 percent HR/FB rate will get higher, especially in that park. The batted ball data looks good, but the strikeouts are definitely a concern, especially considering his swinging strike rate is also up to 15.3 percent, which is among the bottom 20 in the stat. Whoever drafted Puig obviously did so because they had to really like him at the price, so buying low on him is likely very difficult, but if his owner is concerned enough about the average and strikeout rate, I'd like to acquire him with the assumption the power is coming and hope the strikeout rate falls as he gets comfortable, and the average then bounces back as a result.

One guy I really liked in the preseason (and the trade the A's made for him) but found his cost a bit prohibitive in draft season is Jurickson Profar. I thought the A's made an excellent decision to acquire Profar, but I've sure been wrong so far, as he has been brutal on offense with a .223 OBP and only two homers, and has been equally bad on defense, recently developing the "yips" on throws from second base. In 2018, Profar, long carrying a high prospect pedigree, was finally healthy for a whole MLB season and responded with 20 homers, 10 steals and 169 combined runs and RBI. Even more promising to me was how he improved during the season, posting a .270 average with 11 homers in his last 60 games and stinging the ball with a 44.6 percent hard hit rate in that span. It looked like Profar had finally arrived, but this first month has been a complete departure from that.

A closer look doesn't show a ton of changes from 2018, as his has actually maintained his 37 percent hard hit rate and his excellent 14 percent strike out rate. The one stat that does stick out — and granted it's only been a month — is his infield fly ball rate, which has more than doubled to 25.8 percent and actually leads all of baseball. If you want a quick way to submarine your batting average, leading the league in infield pop-up percentage is a hell of a place to start. His exit velocity has dropped to 85.4 mph from 87.3 mph but even that drop with all his other stuff maintaining (except the pop ups) still doesn't explain a .174 BABIP that has crushed his batting average. Looking at his splits reveals a wild stat, as the switch hitting Profar is currently 7-for-73 against right-handed pitchers, good for a splendid .096 average.

The pop ups are the one issue that sticks out in his profile, but the real issue for Profar, especially as Matt Olson nears his return (and locks up first base on a daily basis), is how long will the A's run him out there every day, especially if the defense doesn't get a lot better quickly. They traded for him and clearly like him. If he's performing, they would strongly prefer to use him at second base and let Chad Pinder play more outfield, but if Profar can't hit or field soon, Pinder might start to see a bump in playing time at second base. Profar sat out the last two games as a "mental break," and I think he's going to get another shot right away to earn everyday playing time, but the leash has certainly shortened by a good amount. Profar's owners are still hanging on to him (still 100 percent in NFBC 15-teamers and 97 percent in 12-teamers) as his multipositional eligibility at every infield spot carries a lot of value, but I have to think if he has a quiet weekend in Pittsburgh, we are going to see a good amount of Profar drops this weekend. With the positional eligibility and upside in what still should be a good offense, I think I'll bid on him if he becomes available, but it won't be a big bid right now. In a deeper league, I would probably toss an offer out to see just how discounted his owner is willing to let him go.

FAAB Feelings

Griffin Canning. Canning was called up by the Angels and made his Major League debut on Tuesday. He's likely to be a popular add in leagues this week (well, at least in leagues like the NFBC, where he wasn't available this past Sunday) as he is lined up for two starts, one in Detroit and one in Baltimore, two offenses that don't strike fear in fantasy owners. The 22-year old Canning was a second-round pick out of UCLA by the Angels in the 2017 draft. He dominated Double-A in 2018, posting a 1.97 ERA in 45.2 innings, but then struggled upon a promotion to Triple-A with a 5.49 ERA in 59 innings, although he was bitten by a high BABIP and a low strand rate. He started 2019 in Triple-A and showed no issue with the level this time, allowing only one earned run over three starts, while striking out 17 batters in 16 innings against only two walks.

In his debut against the Blue Jays, Canning only went 4.1 innings, allowing three earned runs, but he did manage to strike out six batters. The scouting reports on Canning detail how he can use all four of his pitches (quite impressive for a 22-year-old), but among his breaking balls, the changeup gets the most praise. In addition, most reports coming from the game on Tuesday noted being impressed by Canning despite him falling apart a bit in the fifth inning. Finding streaming pitchers in 2019 is a tough task in this offensive environment, and every high-end prospect like Canning who gets called has to get our attention, as these are pitchers who could be significantly better than those we see on the waiver wire, and we do only get one shot at them. There's a chance the Angels rotation gets healthy, and they could send him out if he struggles, but the Angels don't have enough high upside pitchers to force Canning out of the rotation if he's throwing well. I plan on being aggressive with Canning this weekend, with bids maybe one touch lower than what I was willing to bid on Mike Soroka a couple weeks ago.

Logan Forsythe. This is a deeper-league play, but after two awful years in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, Forsythe appears to be rediscovering himself back in the American League. Through 95 at-bats with the Rangers, he is hitting .275, walking at a nice 12.6 percent and already has three homers, more than he hit in all of 2018. With the two Dodgers seasons fresh in our minds, it can be easy to forget that Forsythe was a valuable deep-league play with the Rays in 2015 and 2016, hitting 37 homers combined over those two seasons with a solid batting average. Most promising in Forsythe's start to the season is his increased hard contact, which currently sits at 45.8 percent, and with five barrels already, he has surpassed his total of three in 2018. Adding to Forsythe's sneaky value is that he has eligibility at both first and second base, which makes him useable as your corner or middle infielder, which can be gold in a deeper league or one with short benches.

Forsythe has been getting most of his playing time at first base with the injury to Ronald Guzman, and it will be interesting to see how the playing time works out with Guzman ready to start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville this weekend. Guzman wasn't doing a lot pre-injury, and we need to see how the Rangers deal with it, but I think Forsythe has done enough to warrant continued playing time. Forsythe is definitely someone on whom I'm taking a stab in 15-teamers where he's only owned at 41 percent, and maybe even in some 12-teamers (where he is only two percent owned) if I need a bench bat that can cover multiple infield spots. If he can find a way to stay in the lineup, he's a sneaky little play in a lineup that has scored the third most runs in baseball and also plays half its games in a nice home park.

A Closer Look

Jose Leclerc, already on a short leash, had a brutal outing in a save situation on Tuesday, allowing three earned runs on four hits in one inning. After the game, he was finally removed from the role, and the two names mentioned as possibilities for saves were Chris Martin and Shawn Kelley. Leclerc's walk issues from 2017 have resurfaced, and while his great 2018 probably gives him a clear path back to the closer role with a string of good innings in a setup role, there is a chance he continues to struggle with walks. If that's the case, either Martin or Kelley could emerge from the current committee, but who should we bid on this weekend between the two? Martin has been fine to start the year with a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 innings, but with a strikeout rate under 8.00 K/9 this year, and the prior two years, and a career 8.4 percent swinging strike rate, it's hard for me to get excited about Martin as a closer or think he could hold the role for an extended run.

On the other hand, including 2019, the 35-year-old Kelley has surprisingly posted an ERA under 3.00 in four of five seasons, and the one year he was over 3.00 (2017), injuries limited him to only 26 MLB innings. While Kelley hasn't been punching out a lot of guys this year, he was at 9.18 K/9 in 2018 and actually over 12.00 K/9 in 2016 and 2017. While his age is not a plus for him to grab a closer job, his fastball is up a tick to 92 mph and he's also throwing his slider faster than he did last season. His swinging strike rate in the last two years doesn't approach his peak in 2016, but at 11.3 percent, he should still be able to generate a decent amount of strikeouts. Pitching in Texas is never fun for anyone, but if someone is going to take this job and keep it even when Leclerc returns to form, I think Kelley is clearly the one who has a chance, and while he's already 75 percent owned in NFBC 15-team leagues due to the earlier Leclerc struggles, he's only 19 percent owned in the 12-teamers, and I'l try to acquire him anywhere I need saves.

Series of the Weekend

Twins at Yankees. Well, we are now in May, so I guess looking at the standings is finally okay, and when you do, you will noticed that the best winning percentage in baseball belongs to the Minnesota Twins at .655. Similarly impressive, the Yankees find themselves at 17-13 even with an absurd slew of injuries to just about every big name player they have. The teams face each other this weekend at Yankee Stadium in what should be a really fun barometer to see where both teams stand. One would think the Yankees have just been in hang-on mode waiting for the troops to return, but they actually have the second best run differential in the American League, trailing only the Rays. Despite the injuries to Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks (among others), the Yankees are third in the AL in runs scored, and despite not having Luis Severino or Dellin Betances, they currently sport the fourth best ERA in the AL.

While Masahiro Tanaka has been fine (3.92 ERA) and James Paxton has been as good as advertised (3.38 ERA), the real godsend for the Yankees rotation has been the excellent work of Domingo German. German, who had to battle for a job in the spring, already has five wins and sports an ERA of 2.56 and an elite 0.85 Whip through 31.2 innings. Walks and homers were both issues for German in 2018, but he has made big strikes in both categories, dropping his walk rate to 2.56 BB/9 so far while only allowed two homers. His strikeouts have dipped to just over one per inning, but it's good to see his swinging strike rate is still really good at 13.5 percent, which breeds some optimism that the strikeouts will go back to 2018 levels. Detractors will point to his unsustainable .198 BABIP and it's clearly not going to last, but I love the strides German has made so far this year, and I'm still bullish on him even as the BABIP rises. He takes the mound Sunday against an offense that is suddenly the most powerful in baseball through the first month.

For the Twins, their offense has been one of the major stories of baseball in 2019, as they have the best team OPS and slugging in all of baseball, and the .493 slugging percentage is a full 27 points higher than the second highest team, the Astros. With the names in their lineup, one would expect that Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler or Eddie Rosario would be leading the team in OPS, but, amazingly, their two guys with an OPS over 1.000 are actually Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco. Of course, Garver splits time Jason Castro and Willians Astudillo, but Polanco's OPS comes from 107 at bats, a truly remarkable start to the season for the shortstop. Polanco missed the first half of last season to a PED suspension but has started this season on a huge tear, hitting .327 with 15 extra base hits and 16 runs scored. Polanco had a hard hit rate over 30 percent for the first time in 2018 and has ramped that up even more this season with a 41.4 percent through the first month. He has also increased his exit velocity four mph to 87.9 mph, and he already has eight barrels on the season compared to nine in all of 2018.

The only disappointing aspect of this big series is that Jose Berrios pitched Thursday, so he won't appear in the series. If you are looking for fireworks, look no further than Michael Pineda starting in Yankee Stadium on Sunday, which was always an adventure when he was with the Pinstripes. Just to add to the intrigue, there's a chance that Stanton will return this weekend as the Yankees slowly start to get their intended Opening Day roster back together. Enjoy your baseball weekend!