This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Sunday, July 7
There are eight days remaining until MLB hits the All-Star break with the All-Star game scheduled for Tuesday, July 16. For the general managers of each franchise, the break provides the time to determine if they will be buyers or sellers at this year's trade deadline on July 30. MLB's expanded playoffs add an extra layer of complexity to any strategy, but the last-place Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins will be entertaining offers for most of their assets. Which teams will be the most aggressive and move "all-in" is yet to be determined.
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The Astros Are Back in the Race
The Houston Astros have turned their season around and I continue to believe they will win the AL West. On May 1, the Astros were 10-19 and on the verge of not being involved in the division race at all. However, since then they have gone 36-24, ranking sixth best in MLB. By comparison, the Phillies have had the best record since May 1, going 38-20 and have the best record in MLB at 58-31 entering today's action. The Astros have posted a 19-10 home record since May 1, ranking fifth best in MLB and tied with their division-rival Seattle Mariners. If they continue to win two-thirds of their home games and play .500 baseball on the road, they will win the AL West.
The Best Bets for the Red Sox vs Yankees
The Red Sox were projected to finish in last place in the highly competitive AL East division race this season, but have proved the experts wrong sporting a 48-40 record that has averaged a –103-favorite bet resulting in a 5.89-percent ROI and making their backers a profit of $970 per $100 wager. The Yankees are always overpriced prior to the start of each season and this one has been no different. Despite being 19 games over .500 at 55-36 they have provided their backers a break-even result by averaging a –133-favorite wager.
Fans of MLB see this rivalry as one of the best in the history of baseball and features the superstitious "Curse of the Bambino" and the "Exorcism of the Curse," which occurred in 2004. The curse lasted 86 years between 1918 and 2004, marking the length of time between the Red Sox's World Championship seasons. Prior to the 1920 trade of Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees, the Red Sox had won five of the first 15 World Series. After the trade the Red Sox endured 86 years until they won the 2004 World Series, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in four games.
In the 2004 ALCS, the Red Sox overcame a 0-3 deficit in the seven-game series against the New York Yankees, winning two of the elimination games in extra innings and marking one of the rarest comebacks in all of sports. The passion between the two fan bases is second to none, and the atmosphere at both Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park is markedly more intense when each respective rival is in town.
I have been betting against the Yankees in most of their games over the past two weeks, resulting in a nice profit. However, I lost with the Red Sox Saturday in the second game of this three-game series as the Yankees overcame a 4-3 deficit and won 14-4 in dangerous heat conditions. The Yankees' leadoff hitter Ben Rice became the first rookie in Yankees history to hit three home runs in a single game.
Since 2004, the Yankees are 104-81 averaging a –130 favorite resulting in a -2.15-percent ROI in home games against the Red Sox. There have been just five games in this rivalry where the Yankees scored 14 or more runs and they have gone 3-2 following such a game. There have been six other games in this rivalry in which the Yankees hit four or more home runs and are 4-2 following such a game.
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More Situational Angles You Should Know
Under Yankees' skipper Aaron Boone the Yankees are 15-34 (31 percent) averaging a –127 favorite resulting in a –44-percent ROI after game number 81 and his starter having eight or fewer losses.
Red Sox skipper Alex Cora is a solid 19-6 (76 percent) averaging a –105 favorite and a profitable 49-percent ROI in games played in the first 100 games of the regular season having a starter on the hill who did not complete 5.0 innings and never had a lead in his previous start.
Under Boone the Yankees are just 2-11 in July following a game in which the opposing starter allowed three or more earned runs in all games played in July.
My best bet for Sunday is on the Boston Red Sox priced as 135 underdogs using the moneyline.
Live Betting Strategy
If the Red Sox score first in this game and that score is in the first three innings, consider adding more to your best bet on the Red Sox using the live betting lines. Even if the Red Sox score first the price will remain cheap simply because they are playing the Yankees in the Bronx. The Red Sox are 21-5 (81 percent) when scoring first in road games this season.
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