This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Saturday's College Baseball Super Regionals Best Bets
Oh Evansville, you turds. So many chances to do some damage, and cover the run line. You spit in my face for believing in you. There's a lot of action on the board today, some of it was a carry over from yesterday. My head is spinning with choices, but I locked into the direction I'm going towards.
All four favorites won yesterday, and now with every team going I doubt it's all chalk lattes today. There should be at least a few dogs coming up big today.
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Oregon State Beavers (+105) @ Kentucky Wildcats (-135) | Total: 11.5
I covered this in my last article as a series handicap, so if you read it then you have an idea of where I'm going with this. The Oregon State/Kentucky showdown is probably the most interesting Super Regional we have this weekend. It's two teams with a lot of numbers and wins that have extremely similar paths.
Projected to go today for the Beavers is their ace, Aiden May. I know I covered this last time, so bear with me. May has been a Godsend, transferring from Arizona. The Beavs didn't have a legit ace last season, and obviously had Cooper Hjerpe in 2022. With May, they clearly have the guy they believe is capable of giving his team a chance to win almost every time out. The 2.88 ERA and 79 K/22 BB ratio in 68.2 IP has provided May the opportunity to be one of the best pitchers in the Pac 12 conference, despite missing a month at the beginning of the year.
Going against a capable Kentucky lineup, May will have to vanquish and neutralize the immediate threats of their top bats in Ryan Waldschmidt, Nick Lopez, Emilien Pitre, and Ryan Nicholson. The two Ryans have combined for 34 of the teams 83 taters this season, as well as 104 RBI's. I don't know if this Kentucky team has a legit 1st rounder (in 2024) on their roster, but if there was it's Waldschmidt (and you never know he could be one). It all starts with him, so if May can keep him quiet, then it begins a bit of a trickle down effect. The best way to silence this lineup is to limit traffic on the bases as UK has swiped 113 bags this year (16th most).
Also projected to go today is Trey Pooser, the usual Friday night guy for the Cats. Pooser is the definitely the most consistent starter on the team. Something that's quite underrated is the fact that he has yet to have truly a blow-up outing in 2024. On Opening Day he went 4.2 innings with 5 ER against USC Upstate, which is bad but not a real bomb. He had another outing with 3 IP/4 ER, which isn't good but it's not a disaster. The 3.77 ERA, which is really good in the SEC, serves as a reminder that Pooser has been able to keep his team in it. One thing to watch is he can give up the home runs.
Oregon State's offense has been missing key pieces for most of the year, and it really wasn't until two weeks ago that they became complete again. We saw what that complete offense looked like the first few weeks of the season, it was dangerous. It's an offense that does damage 1-9. Obviously led by superstar 2B and top-five '24 prospect, Travis Bazzana, it's a lineup that hums. The saucy Aussie 2B has cracked 28 taters, 16 doubles, and four triples to go along with that pristine .415 batting average. When he's locked in, Oregon State has a great chance of winning. When he's not it's more like 50/50. For the Beavers to win this series, Bazzana has to play like he wants to be the number-one pick. Without a doubt, he's the best player on the field in this showdown.
Oregon State was one of my original preseason Omaha final eight teams. I've had a ticket on them to win it all season long. There's an advantage on the mound and at the plate today for the Beavers. I expect this to be a bludgeoning three game series, but given the firepower they have, the boys from Corvallis should find a way tonight.
Pick: Oregon State ML +105
