This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Props and Picks Today: MLB Betting Picks for 4/23
Its a gorgeous spring day out as we are just about at a sports equinox of sorts. NHL and NBA playoffs have kicked in the NFL Draft starts tomorrow night. And of course, we have baseball! Let's try to hit some winners today!
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Pirates vs. Angels
Andrew Heaney has gotten off to an excellent start for the Pirates this season, which of course means there's a 100% chance that Pittsburgh trades him by the deadline. But hey, he was their big offseason signing, so enjoy him while you can, Pirates fans.
Through four starts, Heaney has an excellent 2.13 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Opponents put the ball in play against him as his 6.1% BB% is good, but his 22,4% K% is pretty much league average, and his 21% Whiff% is only 21st percentile as per Statcast. Heaney has succeeded this season by controlling contact well, as he kept the ball on the ground 45.6% of the time and out of danger with just a 5.9% Barrel%.
Can he keep this up? Contact skills for a pitcher are not terribly sticky, with the exception of ability to induce grounders. Heaney's fastball velo has waned to 90mph, but he's gone more to his changeup this season and found some success with it He gets a favorable matchup here as he faces the Angels in a Revenge Game! He spent 5.5 seasons in Anaheim, though with more promise than consistent success. The really good news is that Anaheim has flailed vs. lefties so far this season to the tune of a 78 wRC+ and 26.3% K% in 133 PA's.
I don't totally trust Heaney to do more than give the Pirates a solid, quality start sort of outing. His K prop Over/Under is 5.5, which is (not) coincidentally his exact average as he has fanned 22 batters in his 4 starts. What he's done better with is just give the Pirates good innings as he's gone at least 6 IP in all but his first start of the season. I like that trend to continue.
MLB Best Bet: Andrew Heaney Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135 at DraftKings)
Orioles vs. Nationals
It's the Battle of the Beltway! These franchises are locked in an endless legal dispute of broadcast payments from MASN, but otherwise I doubt the franchises or the fan bases concern themselves that much with the other team. Right now neither is off to a good start.
The Orioles' post-All-Star Break malaise in 2024 has carried into this season as they sit at 9-13. The offense is on the meh side as their overall 106 wRC+ and 4.5 runs/game totals are fine, but not at all exceptional. Their teamwide .224 Avg and .297 OBP is really on the disappointing side.
Cedric Mullins looked like a prime trade candidate as his contract runs out at the end of the season. Instead, he's just about the only Oriole off to a fast start, with six homers and a .290/.443/.623 triple slash. Gunnar Henderson started the season on the IL and has just 2 homers and a .213 Avg in 64 PA's. They brought in the fence in left in Camden Yards and signed Tyler O'Neill to take advantage of it, but he has only 1 homer after his annual Opening Day blast.
The list goes on, but it's really the pitching that has let the O's down. Today's starter Tomoyuki Sugano has become their de facto ace with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez both down and the Orioles failing to add the top-end SP they so clearly needed. On the surface, Sugano's 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP look fine. Unfortunately, it's completely unsustainable as his 9.2% K% (1st percentile) and 17.1% Whiff% (6th percentile) mean he really needs to control contact and/or have some batted ball luck to survive. And Sugano's indicators are really kind of middling there with an 89.9 EV allowed and 39.7% GB%. His xERA is a whopping 6.42
The Nats counter with Trevor Williams, who is almost on the exact opposite side of the "luck" spectrum as his 3.62 xERA suggest he's pitched better than his ugly 5.95 ERA and 1.63 WHIP would indicate. He's not exactly an ace, though, as his 87.1 fastball velo places him in the 1st percentile in MLB, and his 18% K% only looks good compared to Sugano.
The weather has turned full Spring this week, and it looks like mid 70's with a light breeze tonight in DC. I'm looking for some offense on both sides, especially against the SP's. The Orioles are off to a flying start in F5 Overs vs righty starting pitchers, 13-2 so far with a 66.2% ROI. Plus, despite their overall woes, they actually lead the league with a team wRC+ vs. righties. Let's ride the trend here.
MLB Best Bet: F5 Over 5 (-120 bet365)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Andrew Heaney Over 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Orioles Vs. Nats F5 Over 5 (-120)
