This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Saturday, August 10
In yesterday's article, I detailed my best on the Marlins, who lost 6-2 in extra innings to the surging Padres. The algorithm I provided has done very well having produced profits in each of the last 15 seasons except one in 2018. The point is that all my betting systems and algorithms identify solid betting opportunities that do not always win but have been winners throughout the entire season. Do yourself a favor and track that betting system and bet on the games when active, and the profits will stream into your bank account.
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Best Bet for Cubs vs. White Sox
Betting opportunities can be found in any matchup and sometimes include the worst teams in the league as is the case for this game. The Chicago White Sox lost 21 consecutive games before defeating the Oakland A's 5-1 Tuesday. They lost the final game of that three-game series and the first game of this series against the Cubs, who are two games under .500 at 58-60 but remain in contention for the third and final National League Wild Card spot.
The White Sox have sadly become a historically poor team and have won just three of their previous 30 games and are 28-90 on the season. They are 22-86 when priced as an underdog, losing $5,102 per $100 wager despite averaging a +170 underdog price. In the same role, the under has gone 55-49-4, so the market has been able to price the total fairly in these situations. However, we are getting at least a half-run of value betting the over with today's total priced at 8.5 runs.
Who is Starting?
The White Sox will start Chris Flexen, who has posted a 2-20 team record with a terrible 5.77 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP allowing 5.6 hits, 3.6 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per start in just 4.9 innings per start of work. In his home starts, the over has gone 8-4-1 for 67 percent winning bets and 13-8-1 for the season when priced as the underdog.
The Cubs will hand the ball to Justin Steele, who has posted a 6-12 team record with a 3.58 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, allowing 4.9 hits, 5.8 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per start. He has been a consistent starter for the Cubs, whose offense has not produced enough run support for him this season.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Saturday
The following MLB betting algorithm has gone 100-71-5 over the posted total for 59 percent winning bets, resulting in a highly profitable 15 percent return on investment (ROI) and a $2,930 profit per $100 wagered over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet the over where the underdog is priced +190 or more using the Moneyline.
- That team is starting a pitcher who has averaged a horrid WHIP of 2.0 or higher spanning the past five starts.
- That team batted poorly hitting just .230 or lower spanning their last 10 games.
If that poor playing team is at home in this matchup the over has gone 19-12 for 61 percent winners, resulting in a solid 19 percent ROI and a nice profit of $710 per $100 wagered. If the game occurs after the All-Star break this betting situation has produced a 9-5 record for 64 percent winners and a solid 24 percent ROI.
If we remove the after-the-break and playing-at-home conditions from this algorithm and add that the game is an inter-league matchup it has produced a solid 11-5-1 record for 69 percent winning bets, resulting in an outstanding 32 percent ROI and a $610 profit per $100 wagered.
This Cubs-White Sox matchup presents a rare but profitable opportunity to bet the over priced at 8.5 runs today.
Best Bet for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
The Philadelphia Phillies will have right-hander Aaron Nola on the hill for the third game of this four-game series against the Diamondbacks, who have played themselves into playoff contention after a terrible start to their season. The Diamondbacks will have Zac Gallen on the hill for what ought to be a great duel between these starters.
Nola has posted an 11-5 record in 23 starts with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP including 134 strikeouts and 34 walks spanning 142.1 innings of work. Recently, he has had some control issues allowing a home run on three straight and in four of his last five starts. Despite taking the loss in his last start against the Dodgers, he did go six innings, allowing four earned runs, recording four strikeouts and walking not one batter.
The current roster of the Diamondbacks has batted .241 on 145 at-bats against Nola. Josh Bell has the most at-bats with 33 but has batted just .182, getting six hits, two home runs and five RBI. Eugenio Suarez has struggled against Nola, getting four hits in 18 at-bats and one double. Joc Pederson is one of the few who has had success batting .300 with six hits in 20 at-bats, including two doubles and a home run.
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Gallen is 9-5 in 19 starts with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP including 96 strikeouts and 33 walks spanning 100.2 innings of work. Although these slash stats are solid and above average at the MLB level, they are significantly worse than what Nola has accomplished this season. Moreover, the Phillies' offense is one of the best in MLB and are starting to come out of their slump, which will certainly make it more difficult for Gallen to pitch deep into this game.
There are 12 Phillies with experience batting against Gallen. They have combined for a .270 batting average on 111 at-bats, including seven home runs and four doubles. Bryce Harper, who was mired in a career-worst slump, where at one point he was 0-for-24, has pummeled Gallen's offerings, batting 8-for-17 (.471), including a double and two home runs with only two strikeouts in 19 plate appearances. Leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber went 4-for-13 (.308) with three home runs. Look for second baseman Bryson Stott, who has been platooned recently, to get the start today as he is batting 4-for-11 (.364) with only one strikeout in 16 plate appearances.
The Phillies' approach will be to work the count knowing Gallen has allowed a .382 batting average on a 0-1 count and a .352 batting average on a 1-0 count. Harper is expected to have another big game as Gallen has allowed a .326 batting average to him this season.
I am betting the Phillies priced as +105 underdogs using the Moneyline over the Diamondbacks on Saturday.
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Cubs-White Sox Over 8.5 Runs
- Phillies Moneyline +105
