This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Friday April 4th
Previous article 1-3 (-1.09 units)
Season 10-12 (-4.18 units)
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Observations for today's MLB slate
Road Favorites - Yankees -160 at Pirates, Dbacks -138 at Nationals, Dodgers -126 at Phillies, A's -118 at Rockies, Guardians -115 at Angels
Home Favorites (Largest) - Tigers -250 vs White Sox, Braves -245 vs. Marlins
Totals - A's at Rockies 9.5, Cardinals at Red Sox 9.0
Padres at Cubs 6.5, White Sox at Tigers 7.0
Line Movement
Tigers from -210 to -250
Cubs from -144 to -165
Giants from -108 to -155
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Best MLB Bets Today
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Picks
This is a scenario I will be looking to bet most of the season - Marlins on the road against a strong starting pitcher and the -1.5 run line is EVEN money or better.
A lot is being made of the Braves 0-7 start, but they were at the Dodgers and Padres. I think they get right in a big way tonight against the Marlins.
Spencer Schwellenbach is the top pitcher on the slate and should be able to rack up a ton of swing and misses against this weak Marlins lineup. Max Meyer has a strong pedigree (3rd overall pick in 2020) and looked good in his first start against the Pirates.
The Braves had so many injuries last year that I am not going to rely on their situational against the spread records. This is about the lineup and pitching they will be putting out on the field tonight.
MLB Best Bet: Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -103)
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals Picks
I like both of these teams this season for different reasons. I like Arizona because they have a balanced offense and pitching depth, whereas the Nationals are sneaky and were profitable as dogs last year, so I will be looking to play on them a lot.
With that being said, Brandon Pfaadt was a much better pitcher on the road in 2024 and Jake Irvin was not a good pitcher at home. I just can not get to laying the number with the Dbacks on the road, so I will look to ride this Dbacks offense that is putting up 6.4 runs per game.
MLB Best Bet: Dbacks OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -105)
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Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants Picks
It is not often we get a 8 run total in San Francisco, especially with the Mariners offense and two solid starting pitchers in Luis Castillo and Justin Verlander. Castillo has struggled outside of Seattle, but keep in mind that Oracle Park is one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball.
The Mariners have averaged just 2.6 runs per game only scoring more than 4 runs once. Their offense will be severely depressed in this game. You can also look at some alternative totals for the first 5 innings or the Mariners team totals. I don't think Verlander will be on a pitch count and he should go 6 innings easy, making his recorded outs prop of 17.5 attractive.
EXAMPLES - UNDER 6 runs (DraftKings +199), Mariners UNDER 2.5 runs (+155), Mariners UNDER 0.5 Home runs (+110)
If this number were 7 or 7.5 I might pass, as I have it projected Giants 4-3.
MLB Best Bet: Mariners/Giants UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (Fanatics -115)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -103)
- Dbacks OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -105)
- Mariners/Giants UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (Fanatics -115)
