MLB Draft: First Overall Pick Odds and Best Bets

2025 MLB Draft Betting: First Overall Pick Market Preview

The College Baseball season has come and gone. The LSU Tigers captured their second title in three years and eighth overall. That brought our preseason and LSU over Coastal exact result tickets home for us to finish the season with a bang. While the 2025 season is a wrap, we still have one more piece of business to discuss on that front, the MLB Draft. 

I've done pretty well the last couple of years betting the draft, so I'm looking forward to crushing it again. We actually got an early market (last week) for the first overall pick odds, something I touched on upon the release. The numbers have moved a bit, but there's still an opportunity to get involved. The Washington Nationals hold the pick.

Here's how I view the best betting strategies for the 2025 No.1 overall pick this summer.

MLB Draft First Overall Pick Odds

Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best baseball betting sites this baseball season. The DraftKings promo code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.

Analyzing the Field

It's a bit of a different look this year as the college classes are definitely down from the last two. There are a lot of talented players coming from the college side, but not many that project as MLB superstars, at least at the moment. Because it lacks the true "superstar" or "generational talent" aspect we've been accustomed to seeing in 2023 and 2024, we're probably going to see a lot of teams capitalize on this being a talented high school class.

Last year, I got killed on the 1.1 pick because I personally felt it was asinine for Cleveland to take Travis Bazzana first when there were literal titans available like Jac Caglianone, Charlie Condon, and Nick Kurtz. Not that I was incorrect in thinking it was the wrong move, but I was wrong in estimating who I thought should have gone versus who the team thought was their best option. The truth is the draft is a crapshoot, and personal opinions mean little unless they come from a decision maker. So now, I'm approaching this one differently.

The Nationals are in an advantageous position. They've had some good drafts recently, taking rising stars like Dylan Crews. But there have been some questionable picks. Last year, they had a top 10 pick where I felt they reached on Wake Forest's 2B/SS/OF Seaver King when they clearly needed pitching. King is good, but not top 10 good. They could have taken ECU's star ace in Trey Yesavage or Mississippi State's blossoming unicorn in Jurrangelo Cijntje. Otherwise, the hitting available was better than King like Braden Montgomery, Cam Smith, or James Tibbs etc. 

The odd thing is, the Nats are loaded with infield prospects and young players currently on the roster. But they have very little pitching for their present and future. MacKenzie Gore is having a breakout year, but he's not a true ace. And even if he is, you need more than just one good starter. Yet, they still keep pursuing hitting (and infield) prospects rather than retooling their arm farm. In fact the last time they selected a pitcher in the 1st round was in 2020 when they took Cade Cavalli.

In 2025, there are legit four options for the top spot, whereas there were about six last year. Let's meet the most likely candidates.

Best Bets for MLB Draft First Overall Pick (lines as of 6/25)

Ethan Holliday (-140 on FanDuel/-115 on DraftKings)

Coming into the season, there were two guys whose names were being circled early and often for this honor. Jace LaViolette from Texas A&M, who I comp as the college Matt Olson, had a lot of juice on what was supposed to be a super team. After an awesome 2024, Lava Boy had the inside track. After an overall down year (.258 avg/18 HR), he exposed some flaws in his game as a power over hit guy with a lot of swing and miss (222 K's in 680 at bats in 3 seasons). The down year also cost him a lot of momentum, so there's a chance he slides out of the top 10.

Ethan Holliday was and is often viewed as the top high school prospect. The strong lineage of the Hollidays is well known throughout baseball. His brother, Jackson, was selected 1.1 by Baltimore in 2022. Their father, Matt, was a perennial star in the majors for over a decade. On his own merit though, Ethan had a monster senior year, batting .617 with 16 homers. It's also important to note in the MLB Draft, it's all about projectability for the future.

He's a lot bigger than his brother, standing 6'4" 210 pounds at 18 years old. It's a powerful lefty swing with strong contact skills. In fact, he resembles more of his father from a physicality standpoint than Jackson. It's solid speed and potential for an above-average glove as a SS/3B.

Furthermore, the interesting thing about the draft usually comes in the form of teams choosing between a high school player who is often two or three years younger than a college kid, as well as the slot value. Slot value is critical in the MLB Draft as teams are given X amount of dollars to fill out their entire draft. And oftentimes, lesser players will be taken earlier than better ones because they are cheaper.

Lastly, Brad Ciolek was added by the Nationals as their senior director of amateur scouting. He was with the Orioles prior, and had a hand in them drafting Jackson. He's got big-time ties with the Holliday family, which is definitely not hurting Ethan. 

Like Bazzana last year, I don't think this is a bad pick, but it's not the right one. It doesn't register with me passing on proven college studs, especially ones that fill out positional needs. But, it's not my opinion that counts. In reading the tea leaves, Holliday is going to have a very high chance of going here. He's definitely worthy a play now, as I gave him out as a 3u pick at +115 a week ago. If you see him get to plus money at any point, hit him again.

Aiva Arquette - SS Oregon State (+1500 on FanDuel/+1100 on DraftKings)

Clearly, I'm not a fan of taking high school players over the proven college horses. Unless, of course, you're getting Mike Trout or Bobby Witt Jr. If the Nats are insisting on taking their 5000th infielder, it's worth a look to take Oregon State's stud SS, Aiva Arquette. In what's an overall "down" draft year for college hitters, Arquette has soared to the top of the board. For the last couple months, he's printed his name as somebody that could realistically be the first college hitter off the board.

At the moment, there's nobody else that is being considered ahead of him, especially because he's great defensively at a premium position. The University of Washington transfer was the centerpiece of the Beavers' run to Omaha this year. He hit .354 with 19 homers and a 1.115 OPS. But again, it's about projectability. A rare 6'5" 220-pound show stopper with hit and power to all fields is a special commodity in this game. While he doesn't have the athleticism or speed of Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz, he will move through the ranks quickly as an impact player on both sides of the ball.

If Washington focuses on the hitters, I don't think anybody makes more sense than Arquette from a talent and projectability perspective. The slot value and three-year age gap between Holliday and Arquette may ultimately be the deciding factor, but for the 15/1 price you can get on him, it's definitely something to sprinkle sooner than later. This is a name I expect to pick up a lot of steam in the next couple of weeks, so by draft day Arquette could be less than 4/1. 

It is important to note in the draft that steam is almost always fake news. We face it every year. Reports get "leaked" that a dark horse is entering favor with the team that holds the top pick, and it's usually smoke and mirrors. Remember in 2023 when the Pirates were "thinking about" taking Max Clark or Walker Jenkins over Paul Skenes? Don't fall for it. That's why it's important to stay ahead of the curve. 

Top Pitching Propsects in 2025 MLB Draft

Kade Anderson - SP LSU (+140 on Fan Duel/+210 on Draft Kings)

Jamie Arnold - SP Florida State (+1400 on Fan Duel/+1200 on Draft Kings)

Let's start with Sugar Kade Anderson. I've spoken about him as a huge draft riser for the last couple months. He was maybe a 2nd rounder in the preseason because of his big strikeout stuff as a lefty. Jay Johnson gambled and won on giving a kid who was a mid-week/bullpen piece in 2024 the Friday night spot in 2025. Pitching with real Shane McClanahan vibes, Anderson was one of the main reasons LSU just won their second title in three years. The College World Series Most Outstanding Player was dominant, going 2-0 with 16 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, and 17 K's.

It's a legit four-pitch mix with a fastball that gets up to 96/97. The elite strikeout stuff has helped him blossom into a legit ace with high projectability as a sophomore. Anderson worked himself into 1st round talks in the middle of the season, but with each start, it kept getting louder. The 1st round chatter became a top 15 pick, then top 10, then top 5. But after the level of dominance he displayed on the biggest stage, he picked up so much momentum (which tends to happen) that he's in the 1.1 convo. 

I gave him out after his clutch start against Arkansas on 6/14 where he went 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K's where he was still +430 (reference the tweet up top). Some steam has kicked in and he's really taking some action. The combination of talent, clutch postseason performances, and high ceiling has given him a ton of helium for July. This is a top of the rotation guy at the next level, which is something the Nats absolutely need. There's no pitcher in this class with more hype than Anderson at the moment. Still, he's worth a look at +210 because that number is likely to keep shrinking.

Jamie Arnold is a guy I talked about last year as a legit 1.1 option in '25. I referenced him with this ability a lot this season. Arnold was amazing in 2024 (2.98 ERA, 159 K/26 BB in 105.2 IP). He followed it up with a "down" season this year (2.98 ERA, 119 K/27 BB in 84.2 IP). Because Anderson's performance has carried so much weight and noise, it's slightly deafened Arnold's. If you look back even a month ago, I didn't hear much of anybody saying there was a better college arm than FSU's ace.

Well, things may change quickly, but pro teams don't usually hop on and off bandwagons like a lot of common fans. As much as I love Anderson, I still believe Arnold is the best pitcher in the country, even if his numbers weren't the best this year. In 202,4 I said he's the next Chris Sale, and I believe it. Great pitch mix that's completed by a ridiculous sweeping slider that generates a ton of swing and miss. It's a low release point from the lefty that comes out at about 4'9", which creates a ton of problems for hitters.

There's not a ton of hype on Arnold right now, but he's sitting there in the cut as somebody that still has the juice to be selected here. The price is big enough for you to take a shot right now even at half a unit.

The Nationals need pitching, so I think there's at least some shot they think about getting an arm. If they're going to do that, I don't imagine they would go with anybody else other than one of these two guys. Liam Doyle has an insane fastball, but he's more of an unpolished thrower that doesn't project as an MLB ace (at least right now). And Seth Hernandez is a stud high school (committed to Vandy), but Washington taking a non-college pitcher seems like the most unlikely scenario.

If it's not Anderson or Arnold, then Washington goes with a hitter.

All in all, you need to be taking a piece of Holliday, Arquette, Anderson, and Arnold. If you reference my tweet at the top, I made it so if one of these four are selected, which I would be shocked if it didn't happen, then you are going to make a profit even if it's small.

I will be tackling more draft props and previews as the full board opens up.