This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
It was an eventful Week 1 in the NFL, at least for me. The product as usual was overall extremely subpar outside of a few candidates/teams, but people aren't ready for that conversation. While football is back in full swing as the weather is getting colder, the MLB playoff race is heating up. With just a few weeks to go, there's a lot up for grabs, so let's check in on one of those teams for Monday.
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Cincinnati Reds (+134) @ Atlanta Braves (-158) | Total: 8.5
The National League Wild Card race has been absolutely bonkers in the second half of the year. The top spots have been primarily controlled by the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks for the last couple of months. The Atlanta Braves had been holding firm as the "last team in" for most of the year until the New York Mets went into sicko mode. I had the Mets this preseason as not only missing the playoffs but being downright brutal. Huge miss on my part. Now the Mets and Braves are currently tied for the final Wild Card spot. Who wants it more?
Let's give the Braves credit. They've lost so much firepower in reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuna and top ace Spencer Strider, but are still pushing and embracing the next man-up mentality. Tonight they have a weird drifting one-game matchup against Cincy, but will face the Nats for two, the Dodgers for four and then the Reds again for three. Tonight's starter will be Charlie Morton, a guy who has found a new gear in his late 30s and now 40s.
Morton hasn't been great this year, but he's been serviceable with his 4.24 ERA and .251 OBA. The main issue with him has been the long ball as he has surrendered 21 on the season. If you erase the eight-inning shellacking the Brewers put on him and the five-run beating the Mets hit him with, Morton has gone at least five innings with three earned runs or fewer since July in eight out of nine tries. Cincy has weapons on offense, but they are so undisciplined as a team. With their season basically over, the only guy Morton has to be careful of is Elly De La Cruz.
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Talk about a rough time in Cincy sports. The 8.5-point favorite Bengals, who I correctly mentioned about staying away from in my Circa Survivor pick, lost outright to the Patriots on Sunday. The Reds, who were my preseason World Series team (yeah, I know I took a shot), have been a disaster mainly because of injuries and are on the lower side of their "high variance." Nick Martinez gets the rock tonight as he continues to roll out as a hybrid pitcher in these desperate times for Cincy.
Martinez has been okay in 2024 with his 3.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Considering the Reds need innings, it's likely he will be going for at least five tonight. Atlanta's offense is still dangerous without Acuna. When you consider Martinez gets lit up after the first time through the order (.325 average/.895 OPS second time through and .389 average/.931 OPS third time through), I don't think he will be able to have much success when he gets to the fourth and fifth inning. The Braves have something to play for and Cincy is waiting for the season to end so they can hit that Groupon to Cabo.
BEST MLB BET TODAY
Pick: Braves ML -158 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
