This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
ALCS Game 2 MLB Picks: Guardians at Yankees
Fall has arrived here in the New York metropolitan area. I mean that literally, it got windy and chilly all of a sudden midday yesterday and the leaves started coming down. Oh, and there is a lot of baseball still going on. America's team, the Mets, gets a well-deserved day off today, but we do have Game 2 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) between the Guardians at the Yankees. Let's dig in.
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Guardians at Yankees Best Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Guardians +145 (BetMGM), Yankees -167 (BetRivers)
- Run Line: Guardians +1.5, -154 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Yankees +1.5 (+135, BetRivers)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-105, Caesars Sportsbook), Under 7 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pitching Matchup
We get a battle of team aces as Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland vs. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. Both have pitched reasonably well in their two playoff starts, though do not expect to see much length from Bibee tonight. With the Guardians' season on the line in Game 4 of the American League Division Series (ALDS) last Thursday, Bibbee went just 64 pitches after being pulled with zero outs in the fifth inning. He had allowed two earned runs, four hits and two walks before his day was done. Cleveland turned it over to their high-leverage relievers and excellent bullpen, managing to hang on for dear life in a 5-4 victory.
Look for the same formula again tonight as Bibee probably just runs through the Yankees' lineup twice before the relievers come in. Cleveland's bullpen had a league-best 2.57 ERA this season. Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Eli Morgan each had ERAs under 2.00. None of them pitched last night, so all look good to go. Plus, there is a day off tomorrow, so Cleveland will start running the relievers in at the slightest inkling of trouble for Bibee.
Cole had some shaky moments in the regular season but looked great at times down the stretch. Particularly so in his start last Thursday against the Royals in Kansas City. He made it through seven innings and 87 pitches, giving up one run on six hits and zero walks. He will almost certainly not get the quick hook. If he does, though, the once-shaky Yankees bullpen has looked great in the postseason, allowing one earned run in 18.2 innings. Luke Weaver has completely locked down the closer role, though they did need him for 1.2 innings and 24 pitches last night.
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Betting Picks
It sure looks like we will get a low-scoring game tonight. The Yankees have won with pitching this postseason. Their vaunted lineup has taken a ton of walks (17.6 percent walk rate) but has only hit .218. Juan Soto remains a machine and Giancarlo Stanton has two playoff homers, but Aaron Judge has gone just 2-for-22 so far in the postseason. Austin Wells remains in the cleanup spot despite a dreadful September (.111 average and .198 wOBA) that has continued into October (two singles in 20 at-bats).
Cleveland bats have looked even worse, with just a .264 wOBA in the playoffs. They had a 20.2 percent strikeout rate in the regular season – fifth-best in MLB – but have spiked up to 25.7 percent in the postseason.
The weather should further suppress the offense tonight as the forecast calls for 50 degrees with 10-mile-per-hour winds.
MLB Best Bets Today
- Under 7.0 Runs (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tanner Bibee Under 12.5 Outs Recorded (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Guardians face a near must-win spot here with their best starter on the bump and their top relievers on two days rest with an off day tomorrow. They will pull out all stops to try to keep the Yankees off the board. They took Bibee out at the first sign of trouble in the fifth last Thursday, and he may face an even quicker hook today. I anticipate a low-scoring game and an endless parade of Cleveland relievers.
