This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bets Today: Saturday, March 8
I told you this weekend was the most horrific slate of the season, and boy did it make me look like a truther. It was a complete blood bath across the sport. Tons of late implosions cost us. Thankfully the Oregon handicap was perfect for us, which helped limit the damage. In what appears to be an even worse board on Saturday, we're going to have to get creative.
While I can give you basically the same thing as last night with Oregon-USC where I explained the weekend cap, and if you read it then you know which way I'm going. But I want to give you something different.
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Texas Long Horns Team Total 6.5 Runs (O: +100/U:-130)
Much to my delight this season, DraftKings has opened up new markets for betting the sport I love. Team Totals, alternate run lines and alternate totals. Hell, for the first weekend we even had innings markets (first inning, F3, F5, F7), but I don't know why that disappeared unless they got their clock cleaned after one weekend. The team totals addition is really nice though because it creates new opportunities to get action on a game other than the money line, run line, or total.
The Texas Long Horns as you know is a team I'm extremely high on for 2025. Off to an 11-1 start, Texas is faces a butter matchup before SEC kicks off conference play next week. They're hosting Santa Clara for a three-game set, and after squeaking out a Friday night 4-2 win, Texas needs to look a little more convincing. It's an offense that features a lot of firepower, as evidenced by the 35 runs they tallied out in Las Vegas last weekend.
On Saturday, Texas faces Santa Clara's hottest pitcher in Victor Martinez (no, not that one). Martinez just got done tossing seven inning shutty at Cal last week. Pitching to a 2.57 ERA and .204 OBA, it looks like Martinez may be set up well for the toughest test of his career. This is why going under the hood could be important.
While Martinez has certainly looked the part, his advanced stats tell us he may be due for a regression. The 3.72 SIERA, along with a 78.3% left on base tells us he's been extremely fortunate. And the fact that he's gearing up to see a wagon could be an issue. One of the reasons why I believe Texas has had some weird offensive disappearances in this early season is because they may have a case of lefty-itis. It's when you have a tough time hitting a south paw.
From what I could dig up (and believe me in College Baseball in depth stats are hard to find) the Horns were batting .254 against a LHP coming into yesterday's game. That compares unfavorably to their .335 Avg. against RHPs. Additionally the strikeouts don't help their cause (102 in 12 games). But they're seeing a righty who's only making his fourth career start. Martinez is a bit of a K pitcher (25.3 K%), but does not flash blow away stuff.
The Longhorns are a monster favorite today (-425), so we're going to attack them on the team total over 6.5 runs. They want to carry a lot of momentum into next week. Winning is good, but destroying your opponent's will to live is even better. I think the Horns will be better than the 11 runners they left on base on Friday. Time for the bull to give the bronco the horns.
#Hook'em
Pick: Texas TT Over 6.5 +100 (DK)
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