This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks for Friday, March 7
We're on to the culmination of the first month in College Baseball. Suffice it to say this slate is absolutely brutal! It may turn out to be the worst board of games for the entire season as we head into a full tilt conference play schedule next week. It's kind of like Season 2 of Game of Thrones when the Lannister army was preparing for the siege from Stannis Boratheon. Right before the war, the soldiers were seen drinking, dancing, and having a laugh. This is the current college baseball slate, but then when the war starts, the real action happens. Fitting for next week.
We're off to a great 37-17, +21.43u start this season, so let's keep it rolling!
Side Note: No totals or run lines are offered at the time of this write-up.
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Oregon Ducks (-154) @ USC Trojans (+120) | Total: N/A
Though conference play doesn't officially start for most teams until next weekend, we do have a handful of ACC and Big 10 teams kicking it off early. The late game of the day is the 11-2 Ducks traveling to the 9-3 Trojans. It should be an awesome series littered with talented arms across the board. With Oregon a huge favorite to win the Big 10 (+100), this could be a big opportunity for one of these other teams to get off to a hot start and challenge their position.
The Ducks have been a sneaky good team these last couple of years. Coming off consecutive Super Regional berths, Oregon joined a new conference after the dismantling of the PAC 12. While they went to the weakest of the P4 conferences, there are still some good teams there. In their first season, they immediately got respect as every book gives them large favorite status to win the Big 10. Personally, I had Nebraska at 8/1, but after their stellar Friday night ace, Mason McConnaughey, went down last week with a UCL injury, their hopes took a big hit since he's out for the year. Now is the time we find out if they are worthy of this respect.
Part of what has made the Ducks a tough opponent over the years is the balance of good pitching and hitting. On the mound, they're led by junior lefty, Grayson Grinsell. Grinsell was one of the better PAC 12 pitchers the last couple of seasons. Now he has a claim as the best in the Big 10 with McConnaughey on the shelf. It's a high strikeout arm with the inconsistent ability to find the zone at times. His last two seasons were in the 12%-13% walk rate, which leaves him susceptible to blow up innings. The start to 2025 has been, shall we say, not his best.
In three 2025 starts, the lefty has been tagged for 11 earned runs across 15.2 innings, 10 of which came in his last two outings against Rhode Island and Columbia (yikes). Obviously, it's been a rough go for him. However, if we look a little deeper, the 6.32 ERA is a bit misleading. His SIERA is 3.10, which suggests extreme bad luck with a regression to the mean around the corner. The talent is clearly there for a southpaw who has a good four-pitch mix that includes a fastball, changeup, slider, and curve.
The lineup he faces on Friday isn't exactly at the level one would fear. USC's 73rd ranked offense in WRC+ (73), has been relatively quiet to open the year, despite some layup matchups. It's a lineup that's only mustered 21 runs in their last six contests. Outside of Ethan Hedges (.391 average/1.274 OPS) and Brayden Dowd (.311 average/1.014 OPS), no other hitter is batting .300 nor has an OPS of .900. It's a team that wins with pitching and timely hitting.
The new Friday guy for the Trojans this season, Caden Hunter, has pitched well so far. In three outings, he has a 1.80 ERA with a 20K/8 BB ratio across 15 innings, though his 2.97 SIERA suggests he's been a bit fortunate. Like most USC pitchers, his schedule has been a layup. Hunter's faced George Washington (yes, named after the former president), Rice, and UConn, none of which will likely be NCAA Tournament teams.
This will be his first real test, against a Ducks lineup that's scored the second most runs in the country (158). Though the Ducks have also played nobody, their offense was expected to be pretty good coming into the year, and they've come out on fire. NINE different hitters are batting .300 or better and SEVEN have an OPS of 1.000 plus. They've already hit 31 tanks as a team; only Tennessee and Georgia have more among P4 conference teams. They've stolen 23 bases (out of 26 tries), and their OBP is near .460. Giggles. Whether it's Maddox Moloney, Mason Neville, Carter Garate, Dominic Hellman, or whoever, this offense has some real firepower.
As much as I like Caden Hunter, he could be overmatched on Friday, even at home. The Nebraska transfer has missed virtually two years before coming to USC. He only has four starts under his belt coming into this contest. The other issue is that it's unlikely that his offense will give him enough support to hang around. That said, I still believe he will be competitive tonight, giving his team somewhat of a chance to keep it relatively close.
Ultimately, I believe this is where Grinsell gets right. And going against my usual trend of backing home teams on Friday nights in conference play, this may be one to go against the grain. Not to mention USC is not playing a true home game, as this season they will be playing in Irvine tonight as their home field is under construction all year.
Nonetheless, I believe it will be a close, lower scoring series for at least Friday and Saturday. My handicap is Oregon takes Friday and USC takes Saturday with their best pitcher, Caden Aoki going. Looking forward to this one.
Pick: Oregon ML -154 (DK)
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