This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Sunday, 3/16
For the first time all season, my Friday and Saturday picks have lost. If it's any consolation, the Hawaii ML came home yesterday as I predicted. Looking for a good one to end the weekend on a high note. And I think I found just the spot. On to the house of horrors we go.
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Alabama Crimson Tide (+105) @ Texas A&M Aggies (-135) | Total: 12.5
For anybody that is yet to tune into any of my preseason articles, Texas A&M was one of the key three horses for the College World Series futures heading into 2025. Roster-wise, it was still extremely strong despite losing some key players from last season. To this point though, it's been the opposite of a fairy tale. A flat-out nightmare of a beginning. The 10-8 Aggies dropped the series to Bama by losing the first two games in comical, but fitting fashion.
On both Friday and Saturday, the Aggie bullpen allowed the go-ahead homer in the top of the 9th inning with two outs in a tie game. Flat out misery. Though betting them on a bounce-back Sunday to salvage the series sounds nice, we have seen this movie before.
The bright spot for this team has been the starting pitching lefty trio of Ryan Prager, Justin Lamkin, and Myles Patton. Through 14 starts heading into the game three showdown, the collective ERA of these studs sits at a mesmerizing 1.98, which is among the best in the country as a starting rotation.
Patton's been a delight as a Long Beach State transfer, proving to be one of the better Sunday guys in the sport (23.2 IP, 6 ER, 27 K's/3 BB's). He'll see an Alabama offense led by a name you should remember from a Futures Wednesday article in SS Justin Lebron. Lebron is now a 2/1 favorite on Bet Rivers for the Golden Spikes after starting out the week 10/1 (25/1 two weeks ago). While the sophomore is not draft-eligible, his historic start is drawing some real hype for the award. Batting .380 with 12 homers and 45 RBI's through 20 games will do that. In fact, he had three hits and a homer on Saturday. Obviously, containing this lineup is a challenge right now because it's more than just Lebron (haha, get it?).
Will Hodo, who hit the go-ahead Grand Slam in the top of the 9th on Saturday is batting .403 with a 1.334 OPS. Kade Snell is ripping a .384 average and 1.046 OPS. Plus they have a couple of other sluggers batting north of .300 with a 1.000 OPS including Jason Torres (also seven taters) and Richie Bonomolo Jr. Granted a lot of these stats have come from cupcakes, but they are ripping right now.
Patton is capable of handling them, though. Limiting the free passes has been a forte for him so far, and that's what really gets this Bama lineup rolling. Truthfully, in a virtual must win game to avoid going 0-3 in SEC play, I like Patton to answer the bell on Sunday for a big performance.
On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has been a mess. Their star player and 1.1 draft hopeful, Jace Laviolette, is stinking up the joint (.246 average), as is most of the lineup. The only bright spot lately has been freshman Terrence Kiel (.414 average/.952 OPS) who has given this team at least some fighting chance. The offense has only mustered six stinking runs the entire weekend, and even though they "need it," I don't think it magically appears today even against the Bama game three guy, Bobby Alcock.
Normally, a 5.45 ERA seems like a good spot to attack. However, Alcock has only allowed a few walks himself in 13 innings to go along with 17 K's. Not to mention the Tide's bullpen has been nails all weekend, thwarting A&M from pouncing for big innings in advantageous spots.
What I'm trying to say is: right now, the best way to attack the Aggies is to play the unders (or fade them altogether). I know I've said Sunday is normally an "over" day, but that is still case-by-case. And the case here is the Aggies can pitch, but can't hit. I know they have to win, but that doesn't mean they will. If they come out and hang a 10 spot in a win, awesome. So be it. But I'm going with the probability this is a lower-scoring contest.
Pick: U12.5 -115 (DK)
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