2024 Home Run Derby Odds and Picks

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Published on July 15, 2024

Home Run Derby Betting: Expert Home Run Derby Picks 2024

The All-Star break is here, and the festivities will start Monday Night in Arlington, Texas, when the popular home run derby will take place. In recent years the derby does not feature the leaders in home runs, like Aaron Judge, but does feature future stars. No matter who is entered the derby is always an exciting event showcasing the power and skills of some of the elite sluggers in the game this season.

Home Run Derby Odds

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New Home Run Derby Rules

The rules have changed for the home run derby this season. Last year the contest was a single-elimination bracket among eight hitters with the top-seed facing the 8-seed, the 2-seed facing the 7th, and so on and so forth. There will be an additional 30 seconds for a home run of 425 feet or more awarded to any hitter. Most important is there is a 40-max pitch for round 1 and the semifinals and then only a 27-pitch limit in the Finals. Pete Alonzo and Bobby Witt, Jr. have former MLB pitchers throwing to them, which might give them an edge tonight.

This year's home run derby will feature eight hitters. In Round 1, each hitter will have three minutes to hit as many home runs as possible. Then the top-4 hitters with the most home runs will advance to the second round for another 3-minute round. The top 2 will advance to the Finals.

The Recent Derby History

The most home runs hit in any round was done by Guerroro, Jr, who hit a remarkable 41 dingers in three minutes, or one home run hit every 4.39 seconds

In the Statcast era, Juan Soto hit a 520-foot moonshot in the 2021 derby held in Denver, Colorado, and marks the longest home run ever hit in the derby. Four of the top-5 longest home runs took place in that Denver edition. Trevor Story hit a 518-foot shot, Pete Alonzo a 514-foot home run, and Shohei Ohtani a 513-foot blast. The fifth longest home run was hit at sea level by the Yankees Aaron Judge, which measured 513 feet in length.

Home Run Derby Participants

The New York Mets Pete Alonso will be making his fifth consecutive appearance in the home run derby and will be looking for this third win. His average exit velocity has dropped off this season to 88 MPH but has hit 116 MPH max exit velocity. To hit a home run in the derby does not require an elite exit velocity and many 100 MPH or lower speeds will be home runs tonight.

The Baltimore Orioles Gunnar Henderson is the most notable power-hitting trailing only Ohtani (29) and Aaron Judge (34) with 28 dingers. He has outstanding power starting with an average exit velocity of 94 MPH. He has a great swing for both power and batting average with a launch angle of 9.5 degrees. If he can swing a bit more with an uppercut tonight, he could hoist the trophy.

The Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, who is tied for fourth-most in MLB with 70 RBIs will have his work cut out for him to make it to the semifinals having hit just 11 home runs in 2024. He is simply a great hitter averaging a 90.4 MPH exit velocity and strikeouts only 13% of all plate appearances. The exit velo is there for him to be the surprise for this derby.

The Kansas City Royals, Bobby Witt, Jr, a native Texan, and third-year player for the Royals will be making his derby debut. He has hit 16 home runs this season following up on his 30 home runs last season and the 20 home runs he hit in his rookie season in 2022. He has averaged a 92.6 MPH exit velocity and has that uppercut swing averaging a 16-degree launch angle that is needed in the derby. He was drafted by the Royals as the second overall pick in the 2019 June Amateur Draft from Colleyville, Texas High School.

The Atlanta Braves star Marcell Ozuna has hit 24 home runs and is in the NL MVP award discussions. He is listed fourth at +2500 to win the award behind the favorite Ohtani at -350, Bryce Harper at +475, and Freddie Freeman at +1600. He is perhaps the best overall hitter in the derby ranking in the top percentiles in every Statcast category. He has averaged a 93.4 MPH exit velocity this season and a 12.6-degree launch angle.

The AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians will have their star power-hitter Jose Ramirez in the derby. He is playing in his 12th season and has hit 23 home runs this season. He is in his fourth consecutive all-star game and 6th overall for his career. He has finished in the top 5 of the MVP award four times and won the Silver Slugger award three times in 2017,18, and 2022. However, he may be the weakest of these great hitters in the derby averaging an 89.6 MPH exit velocity but is launching it at an average of 18 degrees.

Another veteran power-hitter in the derby is the Dodgers' Teoscar Hernandez, who has hit 19 home runs this season and 178 in his career spanning nine seasons. This is his second all-star appearance having made his first back in 2021. He has averaged a 91.3 MPH exit velocity and a line-drive producing a 9-degree launch angle.

The hometown favorite from the Rangers is Adolis Garcia, who has hit 17 home runs and has an advantage playing in the hitter-friendly Arlington Ball Park. He has batted just 0.211 but has hit 17 home runs this season and hit 39 home runs in helping the Rangers win the World Series last year. He has averaged a 91.5 MPH exit velocity and a 14.6-degree launch angle this season.

My Best Bets for the Home Run Derby

I highly and strongly recommend that you consider making much smaller bets, which I call Pizza Money bets for this event.

My long-shot bet is on the Phillies Alec Bohm at +1700 to win the Derby.
OR you can bet Bohm to make it to the Finals by getting +600 at DraftKings.
Alec Bohm to meet Bobby Witt, Jr in the Finals +2500
Bet Over 269.5 home runs hit if the roof is open.
Bet Under 21.5 home runs Gunnar Henderson
Bet Over 484.5-foot longest home run hit by any player.