This article is part of our Betting Advice series.
The Nathan's Famous 4th of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest is a great American tradition. The world's best eaters come together to eat as many hot dogs and buns as possible in 10 minutes in front of tens of thousands of spectators on Brooklyn's Coney Island.
Fans of the event were in shock on June 11th, when news broke that 16-time winner Joey "Jaws" Chestnut would not be eligible to compete because of a deal he struck with plant-based food company Impossible Foods. Major League Eating co-founder George Shea said, "it's a long-standing rule not to represent a rival brand." Chestnut responded by saying, "to set the record straight, I do not have a contract with MLE or Nathans and they are looking to change the rules from past years as it relates to other partners I can work with."
For fans of "Jaws," it was devastating news, but for those interested in a more competitive men's contest, including gamblers, it should be the most anticipated competition since 2016. That's when Chestnut began his run of absolute domination, beating every competitor by at least 10 hot dogs each year.
On the women's side of the event, Miki Sudo has been just as dominant. She has won nine of the past ten years. Michelle Lesco claimed the title in 2021, when Sudo did not participate because she was pregnant.
Who is Competing in the 2024 Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Major League Eating has been announcing the contestants one by one on its social media accounts since early June:
Men's Participants
| Competitor | Personal Best | Notes |
| Geoffrey Esper | 51 | Finished 2nd place behind Joey Chestnut from 2021-2023 and owns 18 records. |
| James Webb | 47 | 3rd place finisher in 2022-2023 |
| Nick Wehry | 48 | The 2024 Cuban Sandwich Eating Champ has been a Top 4 finisher from 2020-2023 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | 55 | Ate 48.25 hot dogs at the Parma Rib n Rock Cleveland Qualifier to secure his spot. |
| Gideon Oji | 38 | Ate 35 hot dogs at the Times Square Qualifier to secure his spot. |
| Darrien Thomas | 34.5 | The #1-ranked eater in Canada ate 22 hot dogs at the Grand Rapids Qualifier to secure his spot. |
| Derek Hendrickson | 32.5 | Ate 27 hot dogs at the Alameda County Fair Qualifier to secure his spot. |
| Max Stanford | 34 | Won the UK's first official hot dog eating contest. |
| George Chiger | 32.5 | 5-time Nathan's participant. Holds the World Record for Spray Cheese in a Can. |
| Sean Yeager | 36.75 | Ate 36.75 hot dogs at the Washington D.C. Qualifier to secure his spot. |
| William Lyon | 30 | Competes in food challenges on his YouTube channel: @TheLyonShare |
| King Yamamoto | N/A | Competes in food challenges on his YouTube channel: @samuraifooddrifter7403 |
| Nutthanon Loetphatphicha | N/A | Competes in food challenges on his YouTube channel: NatVsFood |
| Radim Dvoracek | 21.5 | Competes in food challenges on his YouTube channel: @SteelRodRadim |
| Ricardo Corbucci | N/A | Competes in food challenges on his YouTube channel: @CorbucciEats |
Women's Participants
| Competitor | Personal Best | Notes |
| Miki Sudo | 48.5 | 9-time Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Champion. |
| Mayoi Ebihara | 33.5 | Took 2nd place in her 2023 debut. |
| Michelle Lesco | 32 | 2021 Champion when Sudo did not compete. |
| Katie Prettyman | 16 | Ate 11 hot dogs at the Parma Rib n Rock Cleveland Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Larell Marie Mele | 21.25 | Ate 16 hot dogs at the Times Square Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Mary Bowers | 12 | #1-ranked eater in Korea and 9-time Nathan's contestant |
| Tandra Childress | 12 | Ate 12 hot dogs at the Alameda County Fair Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Jocelyn Young | 11 | 2018 MLE Rookie of the Year. #1-ranked female eater in Texas. |
| Cherish Brown | 10 | Ate 8.5 hot dogs at the Grand Rapids Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Julie Goldberg | 9.5 | Ate 6.75 hot dogs at the Lake Compounce Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Elizabeth Salgado | 8.75 | 2-time Nathan's contestant, selected to compete as one of the Wild Cards. |
| Ellen Straub | 7 | Ate 7 hot dogs at the Washington D.C. Qualifier to secure her spot. |
| Crystal Ocampo | 7 | Younger sister of Elizabeth Salgado, selected to compete as one of the Wild Cards. |
| Rubianne Garcia | 7 | Selected to make her 1st Nathan's appearance as one of the Wild Cards. |
A few notable names have not been announced, but they do have betting odds available.
On the men's side, Darren Breeden and Bartley Weaver IV have bested 40 hot dogs in past years, numbers that would put them in top-5 contention. Both have odds posted at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetRivers Sportsbook.
On the women's side, former pro golfer and current social media star Paige Spiranac posted on X that she'd fill in for Joey Chestnut. Major League Eating retweeted her post, welcoming her to the competition. No further news on that, but Underdog Fantasy has her line set at 7 hot dogs eaten.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Strategy
Obviously, each competitor's past experience in the contest is a huge factor in what we think of their potential to win. But what else should we be considering when betting on the event this year?
Get the Best Line
The key to successful sports betting is finding any edge in value that you can. No matter what sport, including competitive eating, it's important to check multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds. RotoWire Sports Betting pages compare odds at a variety of major sportsbooks to help you find the best value.
For the Hot Dog Eating Contest, I'm finding the best "odds to win" across the board at FanDuel Sportsbook. The only exceptions are if you like Gideon Oji to win the men's contest or Katie Prettyman or Larell Marie Mele to win the women's contest. You'll find more enticing odds for them at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Weather Matters
You'll want to keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer to the event. Typically, higher humidity has meant lower totals. In 2020, when the contest was held indoors in perfect conditions, Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo shattered the world records.
Current forecasts are showing a high of 83 degrees and 70% humidity, which suggests that total hot dogs eaten could be lower in 2024.
Best Bets for the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
James Webb to Win (+200 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Geoffrey Esper is the rightful favorite at every sportsbook, as he has finished in second place each of the past three years. However, I believe there are four strong contenders here in Esper, Webb, Wehry and Bertoletti. Wehry and Bertoletti are attractive options, considering their +1000 odds at FanDuel, but I like Webb based on his impressive 2024 season thus far. He has set six world eating records since February, including eating 51 Texas sausages in 10 minutes in May. Those sausages are more than double the size of the hot dogs that he'll be eating on Independence Day, though that competition didn't include buns.
King Yamamoto to Win (+10000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
While longshot past participants like George Chiger and Derek Hendrickson have shown that their ceilings will probably never be high enough to win, there are a few mysterious first-timers who could shake things up at the top. King Yamamoto, Radim Dvoracek and Nutthanon Letphatphicha are all international YouTube eating sensations who are making their first appearances at the Hot Dog Eating Contest. If you like the opportunity to risk a little and win a lot, all three are available at +10000 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Or you can bet "The Field" at DraftKings Sportsbook, and you'll be covered if any one of them wins at +2500.
Geoffrey Esper Under 50.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
As I mentioned earlier, the weather conditions suggest that the unders will be in play on Thursday. A bet on the over here, means you'd be banking on Esper to match or exceed his personal best. The other books have his number set at 49.5, so we're getting some extra value at DK.
When is the Nathan's Famous 4th of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest, and How Can I Watch?
The Hot Dog Eating Contest will air starting at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on July 4, 2024 on ESPN2.
