Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Jets

They're hoping the second time works better, but the Jets Super Bowl run was already supposed to happen last year. The Achilles' tendon injury that ended Aaron Rodgers' season still hovers as a concern as the four-time MVP makes his first appearance since that fateful day against Buffalo in Week 1 of last year, but if Rodgers can return to his prior form then the Jets potentially become the most dangerous team in the league given their otherwise strong defense and run game. The 49ers of course have no plans to lay down and will pursue their own nearly-realized Super Bowl ambitions with focused urgency, which should make this a hard-fought and close game whatever way it turns out. Both defenses are dominant or close to it, and both teams feature star running backs capable of finishing the 2024 season as the Fantasy MVP. The over/under is 43.5 with the home team 49ers favored by 4.5 points.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers ($9000 DK, $14000 FD) is doubtlessly the biggest story of this game – or more specifically, the anticipation surrounding his return from last year's injury is – but that's not to say he has an especially great fantasy projection. The Jets probably need to start slower than they finish this year, if only to give Rodgers sufficient protection while he works his way back from the injury, and this is a defense that can make the worst fears come to mind for a quarterback. It's possible that the Jets' competitive model this year doesn't even in theory call on much usage volume from Rodgers – that the Jets' own defense is the best in the league means they mostly just need Rodgers to avoid turnovers and capitalize when the Jets get in scoring range. How much that latter situation occurs in this game is up to some question, both out of respect to Rodgers' injury and to the quality of the 49ers defense.

Similarly, Brock Purdy ($9200 DK, $14500 FD) is normally a headlining fantasy producer in any given small slate, but it's not obvious whether the Jets defense will give Purdy much room to breathe. Great as Purdy has been in the NFL, his good games typically feature themes of ample pocket comfort and historically-high YAC returns. Neither of those things is likely to occur here. Purdy is probably better situated to produce here than Rodgers, both because Purdy is fully healthy and because the 49ers are clear home favorites, but there is no NFL defense more dangerous than the Jets. It would not be a poor reflection on Purdy if he were to struggle here.

RUNNING BACKS

Christian McCaffrey ($11600 DK, $17500 FD) is evidently dealing with calf and Achilles' tendon discomfort, but he's fully expected to play despite his Questionable tag on the injury report. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport predicted that McCaffrey should see between 15 and 20 touches from scrimmage, and presumably that's up to review if the game circumstances really scream for McCaffrey to save the 49ers. Backup runner Jordan Mason ($3000 DK, $7500 FD) is plenty capable if he should see opportunity, but whether he sees much is not obvious. Ditto for Isaac Guerendo ($1000 DK, $5500 FD), though his odds are worse yet as the third runner on the depth chart.

Breece Hall ($10200 DK, $15000 FD) has the talent to knock McCaffrey from the RB1 perch with a little luck, but this might not be the setting to go hoping for luck specifically. The 49ers defense is a fine-tuned machine that invests heavily in front-seven personnel, which makes them 49ers almost categorically tough in the trenches. If Hall gets enough usage in favorable enough field position he might be able to break the 49ers defense with volume, though, and Hall is of course a big-play threat on any touch count even before he begins to accumulate volume. There's a chance the 49ers have identified Hall as their main offensive concern, and even so there's a chance that the 49ers simply get outplayed by a great player. Rookie Braelon Allen ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) might be able to steal some short-yardage or/and passing-down snaps, but it would likely only be in a breather capacity. Fellow rookie runner Isaiah Davis ($200 DK, $5500 FD) is also a candidate to pick up any RB snaps that Hall doesn't.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

It's tough to pick the 49ers pass catchers on a single-game slate even when the matchup is favorable, because each of Brandon Aiyuk ($8400 DK, $10000 FD), Deebo Samuel ($9600 DK, $11500 FD) and George Kittle ($7400 DK, $11000 FD) is capable of smashing a slate, but in this case the defensive matchup is so tough that ranking the 49ers pass catchers is made difficult for different reasons. Normally the issue is that the pie is too small for more than one or two of this trio to go off in the same game, but in this matchup the concern is that the pie might be so small that no one does much. Aiyuk's training camp holdout might raise the risk of that somewhat, but generally it would be surprising if all three of these players were successfully shut down by the Jets defense. Jauan Jennings ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) is your likely third wideout, and he likely becomes a bigger factor the closer to the end zone the 49ers get. Players like Jacob Cowing, Ronnie Bell and Chris Conley might be active to some minimal extent, too, but those are desperation heaves.

Whereas the 49ers pass catchers are difficult to project from week to week due to being excessively qualified, Garrett Wilson ($9800 DK, $12500 FD) is a weekly inevitability for the Jets. It's possible that Wilson disappoints in this game, but it's exceedingly difficult to imagine scenarios where Wilson disappoints and some other Jets pass catcher produces at his expense. Generally speaking, if Wilson isn't going then the Jets passing game isn't going. That's not to say guys like Mike Williams ($6600 DK, $9000 FD), Xavier Gipson ($2400 DK, $7500 FD) or Allen Lazard ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) can't make an impact here, but it is probably true that if any of them produces they'll still have to wait in line for Wilson to get his customary target share. Tight end Tyler Conklin ($3600 DK, $8000 FD) is plenty capable as a receiver and could very well pop up in this game, but there also might be a risk that he blocks more than usual as the Jets go to extra lengths to protect Rodgers from the hard-hitting 49ers defense. Jeremy Ruckert ($1200 DK, $6000 FD) is also a candidate to see upwards of 30 snaps despite serving as the TE2 behind Conklin.

KICKERS

Jake Moody ($4800 DK, $9500 FD) had some turbulent moments his rookie year but the third-round pick was mostly good, and importantly he showed the ability to avoid the yips. If Moody kicks a little better in 2024 then he should emerge as one of the better fantasy kickers, if only given the projected yardage/point totals of the San Francisco offense. The 49ers might need to call on Moody more than usual if their red-zone conversion rate lags at all, and given the Jets defense there's probably a pretty good chance of exactly that happening.

Greg Zuerlein ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) could be busy in this game for all the same reasons as Moody – the Jets defense should be strong enough to keep the game close and could drag the Jets offense into favorable field position at some points. Last year was arguably the best of Zuerlein's distinguished career, so there's a case to give him the higher projection here between himself and Moody. There's also a non-zero chance that both kickers offer showdown utility here, though that might be somewhat unlikely.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

There's plenty of danger lurking for both sides, but this is a game where the strength of the defenses makes one or both fantasy defenses worth consideration even despite the threats posed by the respective offenses. The Jets ($3200 DK, $9000 FD) likely have the best defense in the NFL, but the fact that they have the lesser offense of the two in this game might make that a wash at best. Indeed, that the Jets are 4.5-point underdogs makes it more difficult to project a useful fantasy outcome for their otherwise elite defense, but upsets do happen sometimes and sometimes even the defense of the losing team puts up good fantasy numbers. The 49ers ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) 'only' have to contain Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, so their job is more simple than what's facing the Jets defense, and there's a chance that Rodgers is very much not fully recovered from his injury. The home venue is a big plus, too.