We emerge from the All-Star Break with an 11-game main slate Friday at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. This is arguably the most challenging slate of the season due to ambiguity with starting pitching. As of Friday morning, the Mets, Royals, Yankees, Twins, Diamondbacks and Mariners are without confirmed starters. We'll use our odds guide as a starting point, but will need to be active throughout the afternoon and adjust. Max Fried ($9,500) would seemingly have the most vulnerability of the suggested starters given his blister issue, but I'd have extreme interest if he's confirmed.
Lack of confirmed starters also means we don't have trustworthy odds to target for and against. We know we'll want shares of the Twins offense in Coors Field. And with seemingly confirmed arms in Seattle for Astros - Mariners, the slate doesn't seem likely to have a game under this 7.5 run total.
Pitching
Seth Lugo, KC @ MIA ($9,700): Lugo has four quality starts in his last five, averaging 43.6 FanDuel points in that stretch. I could probably end this write up there; that's worth paying for. He's unconfirmed, however, and there isn't an elite strikeout ceiling against a Marlins offense that fans just 21.2 percent of the time against righties. But Ks aren't Lugo's game despite them spiking some during his recent success. He's not without concern; Miami ranks 14th with a 103 wRC+, and Lugo's 2.67 ERA comes with a 4.06 xFIP. But factor in the ballpark, and this sets Lugo up for another quality showing.
Sean Manaea, NYM vs. CIN ($8,800): On the surface, this seems like a huge number to pay for a guy that has 3.1 innings on the season. But Manaea fanned seven in that season debut, and gets a favorable matchup with the Reds at home. Cincinnati has a 23.6 percent K rate, 81 wRC+ and .292 wOBA off lefties on the year. Further, his left-handed presence turns Elly De La Cruz around, and he's hitting just .233 against southpaws compared to .303 against righties. Manaea appears confirmed as the Mets starter, so if you're locking in early and unable to edit late, he's set it and forget it, with ample potential.
JP Sears, Athletics at CLE ($8,100): I'm honestly not sure we can find enough upside in Sears when he's priced north of $8,000, but there are some things to like here. First, Cleveland is horrible against lefties, striking out 24.0 percent of the time while posting a 72 wRC+, .271 wOBA and .115 ISO. Secondly, Sears is throwing his slider at a career-high 40.0 percent rate while his fastball rate is down considerably. So long as nothing is hung, that limits exit velocity, and Cleveland has struggled against breaking stuff all year. Perhaps that's too deep and I'm reaching, but Sears has given a better than 4x return in three of six, so there's a GPP shot.
Top Targets
Byron Buxton ($4,700) has a Coors Field price boost that has him above Shohei Ohtani ($4,500). That stats still say he's worth paying this immense premium; he's got a .447 wOBA, 192 wRC+ and .375 ISO off lefties while Kyle Freeland is allowing a .424 wOBA and 1.087 OPS to righties at home.
Justin Verlander remains a shell of his former self, and stacking Blue Jays cheaply isn't a terrible idea. George Springer ($3,400) is 6-for-16 (.375) with two homers off him.
Staying in Toronto, Rafael Devers ($3,500) has decent exposure to Chris Bassitt, going 8-for-17 (.471) with three homers and two doubles, resulting in a massive 1.588 OPS.
Bargain Bats
Patrick Corbin has been good enough to not fully stack against, but Detroit has a plethora of bats with great splits against lefties, and they are all relatively cheap. Javier Baez ($2,700) sits with a .371 wOBA and 141 OPS, and that's the lowest mark amongst Zach McKinstry ($2,900), Wenceel Perez ($2,800), Spencer Torkelson ($3,200) and Gleyber Torres ($3,000). All are options to help finish builds.
Carlos Correa ($3,100) has a more manageable salary for Coors Field exposure and boasts a .379 wOBA, 145 wRC+ and .235 ISO off lefties. He went into the break with four multi-hit games in his last seven.
Taj Bradley is allowing a .384 wOBA to lefties at home, carrying a 5.55 ERA, and Baltimore is so loaded with left-handed hitters they're going to be immensely popular. Gunnar Henderson ($3,300), Colton Cowser ($3,200), Cedric Mullins ($3,100) and Ryan O'Hearn ($3,100) all have homered off the Rays starter, with only Cowser not hitting better than .400 off him in limited exposure.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Andre Pallante (Cardinals): Corbin Carroll ($4,000), Ketel Marte ($3,800), James McCann ($2,700)
Pallante doesn't have hugely targetable splits, allowing a low .294 wOBA to lefties on the road and .342 to righties. But his 4.49 ERA comes with a 4.61 FIP, and while he' heavily a ground ball guy (63.0 percent), when teams lift him, it travels, leading to a 21.5 percent HR/FB ratio. Carroll and Marte are always an elite mini-stacking opportunity. Marte has a .437 wOBA, 184 wRC+ and .304 ISO, while Carroll sits at .393/154/.352. McCann lands here as an unconventional third piece as we simply need some savings. He's not likely to hit near these other two, and if budget allows, but all means consider Eugenio Suarez ($3,600) or Josh Naylor ($3,400). McCann has nine hits and two homers in nine games since joining the Diamondbacks.
Royals vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Bobby Witt ($3,900), Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000), Jonathan India ($2,800)
Believe it or not, the stats don't back up Alcantara's ugly season. He has a 7.22 ERA but a 4.49 xFIP and is allowing a .284 wOBA to lefties at home, and .287 to righties. He simply hasn't shown any semblance of his old self, and we can stack Royals against him fairly cheaply with the thought it will continue. We don't necessarily want to chase power in Miami's ballpark, so Witt and India give us more contact/speed potential. India went into the break with eight hits over his last six. Pasquantino is on a seven-game hitting streak but surprisingly has just one RBI in that span. Witt has hit safely in 15 of his last 16. Perhaps it's a low upside stack, but nothing suggests a shutdown performance from Miami's starter.
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